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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sun-tzu who wrote (31428)	2/18/2002 3:56:20 PM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

sun-tzu, thanks for the link He made some interesting points on liquidity, and I enjoyed his insights. I think some more bulls have to be shaken out before we see a short-term (3-6 weeks length) rally. I'm thinking we'll have to see the BPI get down to 30-35 at the least before that happens, and I don't think that will happen before the end of February of March unless we have some more dramatic selling the next several weeks. stockcharts.com[w,a]dhlannmy[df][pa50!f] If Tommy Bear's accuracy streak continues it looks like we won't be getting a rally until June, and that turn date probably fits the above chart better than March. Although I haven't followed the historical accuracy of the seasonality indicator, I know that it wasn't a good indicator for the 9-00 to 3-01 season. This current season it seems to have been in line with the September-December rally, but it has petered out since then. What would be your guess for the catalyst that would make the bullishness of the seasonality indicator kick in again before the end of the season?