Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bcrafty who wrote (31491)	2/18/2002 4:05:41 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

More on my retail sector trading op'ty: Message 17077319

To: bcrafty who wrote (31491)	2/18/2002 4:18:26 PM
From: sun-tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

can't see any rally beginning in june that is significant. no real, reoccurring precedent for that in the face of a strong seasonal trading pattern such as the one in which we currently reside. as for tommybear...never heard of him. like i always say, people believe what they want to believe. your construct does not allow for a rally here on the basis of the BPI. given tommybear's record, it therefore becomes comfortable for you to follow his e-wave outline. you may be correct. as for me, i'm playing a new, marginal low and will be going long for a sustained move. i will not be shorting aggressively until the peri-may timeframe. should be interesting. (~)^(~)

To: bcrafty who wrote (31491)	2/18/2002 5:01:13 PM
From: sun-tzu	Respond to of 209892

Although I haven't followed the historical accuracy of the seasonality indicator, I know that it wasn't a good indicator for the 9-00 to 3-01 season. This current season it seems to have been in line with the September-December rally, but it has petered out since then. What would be your guess for the catalyst that would make the bullishness of the seasonality indicator kick in again before the end of the season? actually bcrafty, the seasonal trading pattern worked like a charm from september, 2000 to march 2001, it was just reversed. i've posted this before...the key was a failure of the september rally to materialize. as a result of the serious losses that incurred prior, this kicked in two huge events. 1)mutual fund tax selling which led to 2)individual tax selling. it was this knowledge that kept me short from october to january, 2001. this year, the september rally did materialize, therefore the mutual fund and individual tax selling was negligible. when our pal al green the printing machine turned the printing press into overdrive, this guaranteed a rally through the new year. What would be your guess for the catalyst that would make the bullishness of the seasonality indicator kick in again before the end of the season? the catalyst imo is ongoing...an inventory upramp being billed as a cyclical economic turn by the mutual fund/analytical complex. of course this is BS. also, who ever said that a growing economy meant that the capital markets moved higher -ng-