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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (15194)	2/18/2002 10:55:27 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Speaking of booms, busts, and cod, which we were, New Scientist is predicting the collapse of the entire North Atlantic fishery. I am linking to freerepublic.com because the comments really amuse me, in a sick and twisted way. Speaking of Mencken, which we were. freerepublic.com

To: AC Flyer who wrote (15194)	2/19/2002 10:36:42 AM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

AC, blatant effort to mislead! YES we agree - I didn't think that was possible -g-. I think I that first call also uses operating earnings. The public has been mislead into thinking that the 90s was a decade of profit and productivity miracles. A substantial portion of earnings growth prior to 1995 came from a reduction in interest expense and lower depreciation charges from prior period of low investment. Search Barron's Martin Barnes Bank Credit Analyst or see BCA April 1999. For the impact of ESOP accounting gimmickery search Forbes Andrew Smithers- he estimates that S&P earnings were overstated by 40-50% if mememory serves ( whatever the % it impact is substantial) . Then factor in all the non operating sources of income ( capital gains from bubble stocks etc.) Search Forbes article on Dell - if memory serves the 3 year period from 1996-8 Dell made more money operating in its own stock- selling puts, buying calls & shares) than it did selling computers. On the CFZ thread we have covered the misleading nature of hedonics and how it overstates true economic growth and productivity. Mike

To: AC Flyer who wrote (15194)	2/19/2002 10:47:29 AM
From: Mike M2	Respond to of 74559

AC, another point is how so many companies magically report " better than expected earnings" - not many take notice of the fact the the estimates were quietly lowered as the quarter progressed. I think it was July 1996 when the market was weak and IBM saved the day by beating the estimate of 2.50/ sh coming in at 2.51 - no mention of the fact that at the beginning of the 2Q the estimate stood at 3.25. Now with pro forma scam you can massage the earnings to beat any estimate. The analysts are happy to lower the beat so CNBS can get the sheep lathered up about " better than expected earnings" . This is also true with gov't numbers the original numbers come out better than expected and later revised downward without all the excitement of the initial release. mike