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To: AllansAlias who wrote (31545)	2/19/2002 1:01:33 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 209892

from Sean @ capital insight >>Firstly, let’s dispel the retail sales myth. To do this let’s look at real retail sales ex auto, using the Cleveland Fed Median CPI number. In the 18 months of LTCM-Y2k SuperBubble to HyperBubble, these roared upwards at an unsustainable annualized rate of 7.2% (9.9% nominal) – though, of course, there was no discernable wealth effect, Mr. G, was there? But, miraculously, with the bursting of the Bubble, this came to a shuddering halt and – over the next 17 months to August 2001 (pre WTC, you will note) - they were falling at an annualized 1.1% rate. Once we look at this, we can see that all the last two months of gains have done is to move us back from the Sep 11 trough to near, though still below, that trend and to push these real retail sales-ex back to where they were in Feb 2000. Stunning! <<

To: AllansAlias who wrote (31545)	2/19/2002 1:12:13 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

On the retail front, Allan, I have a theory that those stocks aren't going to break until we see a decline in consumer confidence/spending. Since the recession seems not to have gone to the consumer side <g>, until there is evidence of the consumer pulling back, my theory is that the "Consumer Discretionary" sector (for which you can get a bullish percent reading with $BPDISC), will almost be a safe haven. I assume you're looking out to June or so for options, though, and I also notice that the premium on some of these options really isn't so onerous. The corralary of my theory, of course, is that those puppies will pop like balloons when the time comes. And since there's no predicting when (or even if, I suppose) that will happen, waiting for the perfect moment is, as usual, ill advised. But I'm still trying to be patient. . . no easy task for a Freep. All the semi puts are real slowpokes these days. The NOVL 40's are up a whopping nickel today with the stock down another buck. The Brocade puts (which I sadly don't own) are doing quite well. the freep