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To: Kayaker who wrote (113670)	2/19/2002 3:37:47 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Don't forget that capacity increase only happens with 1x phones. I dont mean to imply that 1x is going to instantaneously double capacity....but it will dramatically slow the need for new capex. PCS is going to add about 3 million new subscribers this year. That is about 20% growth. They are also anticipating a 10% increase in MOU (dramatically less than in the past couple of years). Churn is at a rate of 3% a month....so they should replace about a third of their subscriber base this year. Let's say 75% of the new handsets are 1x. That means they should have 6 million 1x subs on an 18 million sub base at the end of the year. If you looked at PCS as a minute factory....the capacity of extra minutes that would be required, using the above numbers, isnt very much. They might be able to freeze the number of basestations this year without absolutely destroying their customer experience. This would never have been possible in years past. On a relative basis they would suffer, since Verizon, AWE and Cingular would continue to improve their network.... Slacker

To: Kayaker who wrote (113670)	2/19/2002 3:56:23 PM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 152472

Lots of companies did the BK mambo when the industrial age and its railroads, telegraphs, power companies, etc., first got going. Seems to be a historical trend whenever a radically new way of doing things emerges. Hang on to the winners and prosper.

To: Kayaker who wrote (113670)	2/19/2002 4:11:42 PM
From: rkral	Respond to of 152472

Don't forget that capacity increase only happens with 1x phones. Kayaker, To paraphrase ... a doubling of the voice capacity (on a 1x network relative to a cdmaOne network) occurs when 100% of the phones are 1x phones ... I assume. This implies there is no increase in capacity when there are no 1x phones on the 1x network. Do you agree? What do you think is the approximate capacity situation when 50% of the phones are 1x phones? Have you seen any authoritative discussions on this topic that you could share? TIA, Ron