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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (31141)	2/19/2002 9:06:25 PM
From: ChrisJP	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99280

I'm looking at the b-2-b table .... Message 17084055 In Sept 1998 bookings were 481. A mere 6 months later, in March 1999 they were 1257. So the bookings can accelerate very rapidly. Hmmmmmmm ..... like semiconductors are cyclical, maybe ? I'm not really bullish or bearish at the moment, but unless something happens that causes a domino effect, it should be very clear that the economy is recovering. As for valuations, do yourself a favor -- go find or print out a long term chart of the S&P 500 on a log scale. Extrapolate the trendline from 1991 - 1995, which were 5 slow growth years. The extrapolated value of the S&P 500 based on that trend line is maybe just a little bit below where it is now -- like 1000ish. That doesn't even take into account interest rates and unemployment back then vs. now. Regards, Chris

To: LTK007 who wrote (31141)	2/19/2002 10:37:21 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

lukewarm recovery which semis are NOT priced for--they remain grossly overpriced. The guys at Micron have been much more sucessful at controlling their market for many years then what ENRON tried to do and failed. I can't predict that 256 DRAM chips, currently @ $ 9 ea will be $ 20 ea in 3 months or $ 3 ea. I wouldn't take more then 1 fab "going down" or another going online to cause the price swings described above. My preference is a political crisis that takes Korean or Tawaniese production offline temporally to get corporations buying computers in masse with cheap AG dollars before they go up $200 in price for 512 MB DRAM required for XP. Most companies I know are way behind the 3 yr computer life cycle and is planning to replace 40-50% of their computers this year. That would solve most of the semi equipment mfgs. woes quickly.