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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (10654)	2/20/2002 1:40:35 AM
From: Killswitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

These high Rydex ratios are hanging in here an amazingly long time. Looking back at that chart yet again we can see that "normally" the spikes of sentiment max out and reverse sharply back down after just a day or three. 9/11 took a bit longer and had a double peak of sentiment. Here are the numbers for the last 14 days (newest first): 17.73 16.92 16.27 17.41 18.91 17.49 17.84 19.15 17.87 17.25 18.12 17.17 15.78 15.91 That's like a quad-peak I guess :-) Perhaps from this we can deduce that it might be safer to wait to get fully bullish until the ratio declines by at least 3 or 4 points from a peak? Sure, you'll miss the exact bottom, but it beats being trapped long through the last 2+ weeks.

To: J.T. who wrote (10654)	2/20/2002 5:48:41 AM
From: Steve Lee	Respond to of 19219

"I wonder if it is so bad why is the NBER set to announce the recession is about over?" If they do make such an announcement then my best guess at an explanation would be because they are wrong. The recession has hardly started. Remember that GDP is derived mainly from measurements of consumer activity so the low factory and fab utilisation rates haven't hit the GDP numbers. They will, as the effects of layoffs and reduced liquidity of the past 2 years filter down. Sure, they have been filtering down for some time, but the consumer has substituted debt for income. As debt levels are getting maxed out, and income levels are down, then consumer discretionary spending stops. What then happens to GDP?

To: J.T. who wrote (10654)	2/20/2002 5:52:11 AM
From: nsumir81	Respond to of 19219

Market is not imo concerned w/ recession; heard of tepid/no growth scenario?, in which profits do not recover in any substantive way, 'earnings' if any, have to be restated to the downside, debt problems, NET insider selling still despite all talk of some marque names getting some insider buys (which have to be weighed against the sales that have been made) etc NBER can announce that the recession (again technically the 2 back to back quarters of negative growth) is over, but in the end profits and pricing power are the key to any true upward and SUSTAINED surge. Which will be anticipated and accumulated for, early on and manifest itself later. Who knows why they are selling now? Maybe some harmless profit taking? Maybe. Maybe not.