Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (31486)	2/20/2002 6:26:35 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 99280

great article scottburns.com

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (31486)	2/20/2002 7:09:26 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

Justa -- <<More complacency at the same levels today than back then. My call for NDX to new lows still stands.>> I wonder if the "more" complacency now doesn't make an element of sense. Why? Well, I've got two reasons at least. One, if we assume that the Sept. downdraft was a lot of panic selling/buying, then a lot of folks now own a different portfolio than they did before, not showing huge losing positions perhaps or even some bargains. Two: right now, in theory anyway, most portfolios are likely flat since Sept 10th of last year, hardly a reason to cause panic. The "terrible downdraft" that was 2000-2001 seems but a distant memory now, so fear has abated. That is human nature, it seems to me, and the farther we get from that brutal haircut, the harder it will be to cause panic. Anyway, from my point of view, comparing what the VIX was at the last time the market was at a certain price doesn't make for an apples to apples comparison. (BTW, even using OEX for this not the NDX, since that's what the VIX is correlated to, the comparison you pointed out is equally spot on). Instead, the trend of the VIX is more interesting. Don't get me wrong. . . I do think there's complacency here. And we may very well get new NDX lows. That said, by historical standards, the Sept bottom had high enough VIX readings that it COULD stand. I wonder if you wouldn't find the same VIX trend (similar price/lower VIX value) if you checked other panic bottoms (temporary or not) and the periods of rally/dip after that? just food for thought from a freep

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (31486)	2/20/2002 7:52:32 PM
From: Joe Smith	Respond to of 99280

Big Boyz do not smell blood and forget to go in for the kill. I agree with the lower lows scenario. How could they miss this opportunity. And their pawns, the analysts will do the job by digging up more dirt. But, in the meantime, if the numbers are good tomorrow they might let the bulls bask in the sun for a day or two.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (31486)	2/20/2002 9:28:30 PM
From: exp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Justa: Good points, however, IMO higher VIX in Sep 01 than now was a function of a LONGER and DEEPER correction in SPX from the highs of May till Sept 01 (from 1316 5/22/01 to 1073 on 9/10/01 or 243 pts) vs the SHORTER and SHALLOWER correction in SPX from Jan highs till now (from 1177 on 1/07/02 to 1074 on 2/20/02 or just 103 pts). VIX measures volatility of OEX options I believe so VXN or QQV is better measure for NAZ/NDX. Still, YOUR CENTRAL argument is correct: we need to correct more to get more fear displayed by VIX/VXN. So, let's say NAZ 1630-1700 seems a minimum target to get ANY kind of reasonable intermediate bottom.