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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (31505)2/20/2002 8:41:08 PM
From: LTK007  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99280
 
<Just wonder if the Nasdaq can go into a steep decline and the old economy still make gains.. yes IF (and that is a huge if): if public can be driven away from The Casino and start developing a new attitude. But i still sense an addiction to techs that can't be cured without great pain. That is regrettable but probably sadly true.
I see even Leuthold, a traditionally conservative investor announced he has gone to techs as his heaviest weighting,something like 35%.
SPX500 trailing P/E chart 1991 to now can be found in fortune magazine 2/18,page 130. This chart however is not on it's website. Trailing P/E from about mid 94 to mid 96 was in a range of 16 to 18-1. We have not been below 25-1 since late 1998 (except for a moment in early 2001),and we are now at about 33-1. Based on earnings estimates for 2002(which up until this moment are weighted for a strong recovery this year),the forward earnings be 23-1(and that will, i feel prove to be wrong).max



To: t2 who wrote (31505)2/20/2002 10:02:48 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 99280
 
Ding Ding.
NV you are correct.
Money can not flow out of tech into "safe" DOW stocks forever.
These "old economy" favorites like housing and retail stocks are going to get annihilated. Tell me when and we can make a fortune in a month. That is the problem unfortunately as timing is everything.

Look at housing and FNM today.
Signs of cracking?

M



To: t2 who wrote (31505)2/21/2002 10:37:12 AM
From: LTK007  Respond to of 99280
 
<If Naz can get worse, what about the old economy stocks like JNJ, PFE, DD,GE, UTX, HON, etc...
Just wonder if the Nasdaq can go into a steep decline and the old economy still make gains.> my second response:) yes,we are actually seeing divergence now,NV.


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