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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (31925)	2/21/2002 6:23:54 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 99280

Might be that the bear market has to end in a Nasdaq crash...before it is over. 20% one day drop maybe. The numbers I put up a while ago of 1100 to 1200 may not really be that unrealistic given the PEs of a lot of these stocks compared to non-tech. I am of the opinion that the bear cannot end on a retest of the September lows--if it gets there, it has to break through those level. I don't see too many stocks at PEs of even 20 on the Nasdaq unless we get there. (or a reasonable Prices to Sales figure) Just my gloomy scenario. Hope it does not get that far. I fear the real momentum may just be building right now. Just can't see serious dip buying at levels around here on the Naz. The bear argument on valuations may be about to be proved correct. JMHO.

To: LTK007 who wrote (31925)	2/21/2002 6:41:45 PM
From: Killswitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

"So failure of the Rydex signal is thus indicating a bear market---no? " Back in early 2000 when the Rydex signals also "failed" by staying persistently bearish for over 3 months, did that indicate that the bull market was going to continue? No. Rydex is always right- eventually. Actually you ought to be concerned that this apparent complacency by a lot of bearish Rydex investors may mean something?

To: LTK007 who wrote (31925)	2/23/2002 4:06:04 PM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

New Vision & Itsallover re: Maybe the Rydex funds are not contrarian indicators at all. While in the research dep't of a money management firm, I reviewed historical data on a dozen or more sentiment indicators, including the Rydex fund flows. I found the Rydex funds correlated poorly with the S&P and Nasdaq as contrarian indicators. A much better inverse correlation with the Nasdaq was obtained by using Tech Sector inflows/outflows and Aggressive Growth inflows/outflows. The company bought the historical data, but it's expensive. Although AMG Data has publicized continuing outflows from Tech funds, and the outflows are a positive factor, the magnitude of the outflows is important, and that's usually not published. At the coming lows, I'd expect a week of $500 million to $1 billion outflows from Tech Sector funds. (Still trying to find out how high the Tech Sector outflows were in mid-Sept '01)