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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (31943)	2/21/2002 6:47:18 PM
From: 4rthofjuly007	Respond to of 99280

NV- I like your style. Honest to a fault, you give me some good insight into what folks are thinking. I would consider you to be a savvy investor, not a trader. I don't think that you ever really claimed to be a trader. Hopefully, you have diversified your funds and hedged your longs. It is interesting to me that you seem to be entering a state of mind that is described in the classic stages of a bear market. Acceptance. I believe, this comes after the denial phase. I think that alot of investors are reaching the same point and know something is wrong but don't necessarily sell out completely and just figure they will sell a portion and ride it out. Of course, the last stage is the despair/panic stage where after watching things just grind lower and lower, investors just can't bear to see what they have left disappear and real panic selling ensues. The irony is that this will probably mark the end of the bear and a great opportunity to buy stocks.

To: t2 who wrote (31943)	2/21/2002 6:52:25 PM
From: Joe Smith	Respond to of 99280

Look at the ascending tops and bottoms here. Scary. Its got a ways to go to make a new peak. finance.yahoo.com And ho about the descent of another popular fund: finance.yahoo.com New bottom in the teens? BTW, I do think that we are not following that path still. I think that the bear has flattened out, just thought they served as a nice warning to bottom fishers.

To: t2 who wrote (31943)	2/21/2002 7:02:37 PM
From: exp	Respond to of 99280

NAZ Fair Value 1,250 coming into range FINALLY? Actually, 1,250 is likely inflated given the (lack of) quality of the forward 02 earnings and lower tech growth than usually assumed. Plus, once we get to Fair Value we typically go below it by a nice margin. 2002 will be interesting.

To: t2 who wrote (31943)	2/21/2002 7:02:40 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

NewVision: You do not realize how much your emotions are the perfect contrarian indicator. The fear and pessimism you are expecting is exactly what I look for at a bottom. Nasdaq 1100-1200?? No way. FWIW, I think Zeev is dead on target. Plan to start buying in the middle of next week, or at least start averaging in and establishing positions.

To: t2 who wrote (31943)	2/21/2002 7:04:59 PM
From: exp	Respond to of 99280

NV:it's MY Valuation argument BUT Zeev doesn't buy it...YET

To: t2 who wrote (31943)	2/21/2002 7:20:33 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

NV, I think Zeev's scenario of an intermediate bottom soon and a possible test of the lows much later in the year fits better the economic background. It seems that the first "dip" in this recession was pretty mild in macroeconomic terms and that we will not even get two consecutive quarters of negative growth until perhaps late this year or next year. The trade data today sealed a positive GDP for 4Q 01. Leading indicators up smartly again. Defense spending, which is a potent domestic economy driver, up sharply, etc. However, I think techs will lag significantly in the coming rally.

To: t2 who wrote (31943)	2/21/2002 7:28:18 PM
From: limtex	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

NV - Now clear that there is no recovery. Thats what the market is saying and it's usually right. P/Es must compact to lower than a growth scenario. The Sep lows are irrelevant and were set by athe greatst physical attack on the US not the greatest financial attack. That is now clearly under way and it can't be long before some financial institution goes pop. Clearly thiscannot stop until we get to supportable P/Es and those are around 6 - 10. gorget historical numbers since they were not calculated in the middle fo the greatest bear market in history. and the 6- 10 P/Es are on earnings at the level of the then amibent economy. If by some mircal business picks up then maybe some interest might return to buying stocks but in the meantime who wants to risk owning stocks. tomorrow id Friday. Want tohodl over the weekend with the potential horrors that may come cralwing out over the weekend? Not a chance....the game is over except for the shorts. If a company like QCOM can end up dropping 15% a day, day after day then something nasty is afoot. Best, L