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To: Don Pueblo who wrote (113991)	2/22/2002 10:14:44 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

TLC--I appreciate your views on technical analysis and your skepticism toward the value oriented approach that I take. I have nothing against TA, though I admit that I spend most of my time trying to ferret out intrinsic value. But I also come from a highly quantitative analytical background, which makes me skeptical of all these rules of thumb that TA proponents rely on. TA is basically a type of trend analysis that assumes that certain patterns of stock price and volume can predict future directions of stock price. When you look at the basis for these rules, however, it becomes clear that they are based on very elementary principles that don't have much theoretical basis. Just my opinion. However, if, instead of drawing lines between peaks and valleys, you created a true regression line, even that might improve the theoretical basis for making predictions. I prefer to rely on measurements such as the increase in shareholder wealth over time, which I believe is a better predictor of future results. Of course, such a measurement cannot predict short term fluctuations. Art

To: Don Pueblo who wrote (113991)	2/22/2002 10:22:28 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 152472

TLC--One additional point. I do have knowledge of an algorithm for predicting the change in direction of a stock, making possible very precise trades that over time yield net gains of better than 1 percent per day. At least this algorithm has a solid theoretical foundation and a greater probability of success over time. Just wanted you to know that I don't rely solely on value analysis. Art