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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (6931)	2/23/2002 9:45:06 AM
From: chowder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206104

>> If agree OSX is heading to 82-83 from here on profit taking why not short? << Because we don't know how quickly it will do so. We don't know how badly we can be whip-sawed. We don't know that these energy stocks won't run higher before they fall. It's not any different than it was for the homeboys. We don't know that it's time to short because we don't see any sign of a reversal as of yet. That may change Monday, maybe Tuesday, but it isn't evident yet. On January 8th, I mentioned that CC looked good for a short. Message 16876270 In six weeks it has dropped nearly 50%. It wasn't a good short because it was overbought, it was a good short because it showed a reversal sign. That reversal sign was followed up with lower volume. Lower volume meant less buyers. Less buyers meant CC couldn't maintain the lofty heights it had reached. It was that simple! In fact, that portfolio of stocks I mentioned to short in that post is showing a 32% profit in six weeks. A major move if I must say so myself. The fact that they were overbought didn't make them good shorts. The fact that all of them showed a reversal pattern, at least to me they did, is what made them good shorts. From my vantage point, it doesn't matter what's driving the OSX higher. What's important to me are the indicators. Are money flows still positive? Are the moving averages rising? Is volume climbing higher? Is the price still rising? So far the answers to these questions have been yes and as long as they continue to be yes, then shorting can be hazardous to your health. The time will come, why rush it? Why not let the market tell you when to short? That time will come. It's better to be a day or two late and right, than to be early and end up being a long term holder, trying to hold on for a profit. dabum