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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (32623)	2/23/2002 11:58:10 AM
From: ChrisJP	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Hi Zeev -- do you really consider the equity markets as leading indicators ? I don't really know if they are any more. To me they are more like co-incident sentiment indicators, since the investing public has so much money in them. If you look at the market moves since 2000, you will see that the market peaks when euphoria peaked, and the markets plunged because of tax loss selling, redemptions to pay taxes, and then capitulation fear. Now the bond market --- has called the economy pretty well. The yield curve was inverted (suggesting recession) several months before the recession hit. I'm not sure what the bond market is hinting at now -- does anyone know ? All the markets are saying right now is that people don't know what to make of the accounting stuff and aren't 100% confident that the economy will recover or if the recovery will justify valuations. Regards, Chris