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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (114129)	2/23/2002 1:40:49 PM
From: Peter J Hudson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

John, I appreciate your patience & persistence at pointing out Qualcomm's shortcomings when evaluating performance using historical financial performance. Your comments have caused me to more critically evaluate the numbers. I think most of us are tired of pro-forma accounting Looking past the pro-forma numbers is painful, especially for last year. Using pro-forma judging, Michelle Kwan would have won the gold, just eliminate the one time charge for falling on her ass. I do have a problem with your assertion that QCOM is consuming shareholder wealth and not growing the company. <<For plainly stated, the company is not as profitable as it appears to be. It isn't profitable at all, actually. And while it is reporting accounting profits, it is actually consuming shareholder wealth at a greater pace. >> The only shareholder wealth that QCOM has available to consume is paid in capital, and since the value of the company is greater than paid in capital, technically it hasn't been consumed. The overall growth of the company is indisputable. The most important growth has been in market share and influence within the wireless industry. The media now refers to Qualcomm as telcom giant, instead of pesky startup. Pete

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (114129)	2/23/2002 4:28:17 PM
From: Jack Bridges	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

"As a technology guy, as an executive, and as an individual with my ear to the ground." (Not to mention your other stated hobbies.) For someone as articulate, smart and busy as you would have us believe, it's remarkable that you have chosen to devote so much time and attention to a stock you seem to believe has long been doomed. Such altruism is rare on these boards, even among the avowed shorts.

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (114129)	2/23/2002 7:50:52 PM
From: Caxton Rhodes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

The market is pounding the price for many reasons. What you have to figure out is the market correct? Or is this a buying opportunity into a great company? There are two main reasons to own Qualcomm. 1) The world wireless penetration is still very low and eventually most of the world will communicate over wireless. In short, it's a business that will provide an essential service to the entire world. 2) Qualcomm currently supplies chips to, and collects royalties from 20% of the market. As the migration to CDMA occurs, that opportunity approaches 100% of the market. So, one owns Qualcomm because it is in a business that is 1) growing from a small percentage of the world population to the whole population, AND 2) its targetable "market share" will move from 20% towards 100%. (as a note, I am not by anyway saying the there will ever be close to 100% wireless penetration but you get my drift). The stock has retreated over the last two years NOT because these reasons for owning the stock have changed. It has retreated because 1) it got way over priced in the bubble, 2) the “getting there” is happening slower than the market would like. I believe that the market is interpreting flat earnings as "It's not going to happen,” instead of realizing that "it is going to happen, just slower". The “going slower” is due to reduced growth rate projections, delays in the deployment of 1X, and the major delays in WCDMA build outs. It is far cry from the situation our GSM competitors are in, where their problems are due to 1) GPRS being a crappy product and 2) their failure to make their poor performance bastardized version of CDMA "work." The question is does the market know the difference? I don't think so. The market is interpreting "slowing wireless growth in penetrated markets" as "wireless has peaked." They do not understand that Qualcomm's "target market share" is within a couple of years of beginning its ramp up from 20% to 30% to 40% to 50% etc. of the wireless market. How fast you think the ramp up will it happen should determine entry and exit points for those who don't want to sit and wait, i.e. buy and hold, long term. The risk of waiting to enter at exactly the right time must be measured against the risk of holding "dead money in QCOM". There is still a chance that this stock will pop wildly again, although remote, in reaction to an announcement of a GSM overlay with 1X or a big chip deal with a major WCDMA player. Otherwise, I think it will be a steady climb higher. When will the "lights go on" for the market? I think we are already beginning to see it in the press as more and more articles appear discussing 1X's far superior performance in data and capacity. The proof will be in the U.S. launch of 1X this year. The market will start asking the GSM community. "So what do you guys have to compete with this and where is it?" That is when the pressure will be on for a faster migration to whatever flavor of CDMA. Those that believe have and advantage over the market for a while longer. For me, I definitely plan be on that Q -train when it leaves the station again. "GSM is Toast" Caxton