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Technology Stocks : Leap Wireless International (LWIN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1524)	2/23/2002 10:21:17 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2737

MQ, You certainly are a one trick pony on CDMA. Does it begin to cross your mind that when prices get driven below marginal costs, there are no winners? I know it's a difficult concept but please try. Either you are merely shilling for LEAP, and should be condemned; or you are genuinely deluded about LEAP's shareholders eventual prospects, in which case I won't feel bad about taking your money on the short side of your bet. Past being prologue, I'll remind you of your unbridled enthusiasm for Globalstar not that long ago. And look where that fun puppy ended up last week. The docket at bankruptcy court isn't a zero sum game. Lots of telecoms are still lining up for that joy. -R.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1524)	2/23/2002 10:40:54 PM
From: pcstel	Respond to of 2737

Maurice: <The monsterish trend in telecom right now is hugely negative for margins. The industry is shifting from high-margin voice minutes to very low- or no-margin data minutes. There's the huge trend of wireless substitution where people are moving in large numbers from profitable wireline minutes to much lower margin wireless minutes> AMAZING, 1 MILLION SUBS DON'T SHOW UP AT CHRISTMAS AND TELECOM BECOMES TELEBOMB! Well, the truth is Maurice. We have been in a price-war. Just no-one would own up to it! If you check out some of the Sprint Affiliates, they simply can not continue on this pace! Like I said. It's "Wireless Armageddon".. Remember that phrase... Like WDMA technology! Everyone has their Wireless Bucket O' Minutes with Free LD pointed at one another! The LEC's like Verizon and Bell South/SBC simply will not cannibalize their Wireless Business only to cannibalize their Wireline Business! Subscriber growth has shown is slowing for traditional wireless services.. Look at PCS.. They are gonna kill their ARPU and margins trying to attract another million low ARPU/low margin/credit risk subscribers? Everyone thinks the Price War is about to begin. I say, it's getting ready to END! Pretty soon, Verizon, or ATT are going to say.. No more Free Long distance! And the rest of the majors will follow right behind them.. Why?? Because it will increae their operational margins, then one will drop roaming areas back to several states without additional per MOU fees, and the rest will follow! It's like the Cold War. The "Doomsday Clock" is at 11:59. Will they really launch a Price War which reduce ARPU and margins down to zero, just to attract a million more slow pay/no pay high credit risk customers? Does the Ritz Carlton, Hyatt, Four Seasons, and Marriott lower their room rates to compete with Motel 6 because 25% of their rooms are empty? Cricket is the Extended Stay America of the hotel business! It's not fancy. But, it is priced fairly, and provides comfortable/safe surroundings. Sorry Maurice, No Price War! Free features (like LD) will go away. All of the Majors will follow suit! They will start talking about how much their margins are going to improve over the next 2 years as their customer contracts expire and they go to the no FREE LD model. Sprint had "First Incoming Minute FREE".. No one matched it! It died! The real assult will be the Flat Rate Providers on the RBOC's. Northcoast is owned by the Dolans and Cablevision. Devon is affliated with Adelphia! I would suspect COX will want in this market sooner or later! PCSTEL

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1524)	2/24/2002 7:30:22 PM
From: KyrosL	Respond to of 2737

Here is another somewhat worrisome titbit for QCOM and CDMA enthusiasts from that same Barron's article: "Q: Isn't there anything positive to say? Anything on the horizon? Cleland: The FCC authorized a truly revolutionary technology on Valentine's Day, ultrawide band. This is Star Trek stuff. It has enormous and wide-reaching applications. This technology has been buried in the FCC for three years. And Chairman Powell and Commerce Secretary Evans twisted arms to get it to market. Because it is so revolutionary and it is so different from normal wireless technology, we think most people simply aren't aware of it or don't get it. Q: How does it work, and how would it affect an average consumer? Cleland: It allows for all sorts of consumer applications such as monitoring and remote sensing. Whyman: But the big application is for short-distance wireless devices because it has a lot more bandwidth and uses much less energy. You can conceive of wireless local laptops that you can walk around the office with. Q: Does it threaten existing technology? Cleland: It is a very disruptive technology. Blue Tooth and 80211B are at risk. I can't believe I got that acronym right. Q: That was good. But how is this good for the industry right now? Cleland: The positive is, this is a new technology that will have a very steep demand curve. However, it is going to take awhile to roll it out. And while the FCC authorized it, it's taking a cautious stance, because of concerns by competitors that this new technology would create dangerous interference. Competitors like Qualcomm and Sprint PCS didn't want it to get out of the regulatory crib. It is a whole new technology that will trigger a whole new set of applications we haven't thought about before. It's a better technology and better standard and it will open them up to more competition."