To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (19985 ) 2/25/2002 6:37:15 PM From: Bilow Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500 Hi Nadine Carroll; As far as the current situtation, I agree with his last few paragraphs: <<< And don't get me wrong. I favour an Israeli withdrawal from the territories - the semi-occupation is corrupting and immoral, and alienates Israel's friends abroad - as part of a bilateral peace agreement; or, if an agreement is unobtainable, a unilateral withdrawal to strategically defensible borders. In fact in 1988 I served time in a military prison for refusing to serve in the West Bank town of Nablus. But I don't believe that the resultant status quo will survive for long. The Palestinians - either the PA itself or various armed factions, with the PA looking on - will continue to harry Israel, with Katyusha rockets and suicide bombers, across the new lines, be they agreed or self-imposed. Ultimately, they will force Israel to reconquer the West Bank and Gaza Strip, probably plunging the Middle East into a new, wide conflagration. [Bilow: I'm not so sure that this would result in a wider conflagration. But then again, my home isn't riding on the question.] I don't believe that Arafat and his colleagues mean or want peace - only a staggered chipping away at the Jewish state - and I don't believe that a permanent two-state solution will emerge. I don't believe that Arafat is constitutionally capable of agreeing, really agreeing, to a solution in which the Palestinians get 22-25% of the land (a West Bank-Gaza state) and Israel the remaining 75-78%, or of signing away the "right of return". He is incapable of looking his refugee constituencies in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Gaza in the eye and telling them: "I have signed away your birthright, your hope, your dream." [Bilow: This is in keeping with the way I understand human nature. The native Indians in the US didn't give up on the loss of the vast majority of their homelands until faced with complete defeat by a foe far militarily superior (Custer, typically, attacked a force 20x as large as his own), who didn't mind killing their women and children in large numbers (or forcing them to die of exposure), that was far larger in population, and with a much higher population growth rate. This is the kind of stuff that it takes to make a people give up their land. The Palestinians (along with their Arab brothers) have faced none of this. The Israelis have hardly slaughtered any of them, and doesn't outnumber them at all, though they do have a stronger military.] And he probably doesn't want to. Ultimately, I believe, the balance of military force or the demography of Palestine, meaning the discrepant national birth rates, will determine the country's future, and either Palestine will become a Jewish state, without a substantial Arab minority, or it will become an Arab state, with a gradually diminishing Jewish minority. Or it will become a nuclear wasteland, a home to neither people. · Professor Benny Morris teaches Middle East history at Ben-Gurion University, Beersheba, Israel. His next book, The Road to Jerusalem: Glubb Pasha, the Jews and Palestine, is published by IB Tauris. >>> -- Carl