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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Cotter who wrote (36236)	2/26/2002 4:04:48 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 69904

Hi Bill, >> . Is anything sacred anymore? You have to ask!!! LOL!!! I don't know the company well enough to disagree with this analysis, but let try to make the case for the long side and maybe you can fill in the blanks as this is a company you know. I copied Mr. Pink's analysis more as a reminder to myself to look at the company more closely. Long case: 1)LRCX has a good product pipeline of new products for the 300 MM and copper products and they are better than AMAT and NVLS I am told. 2) INTC re-affirmed their cap ex for the the year and they account for 30 percent of all, yes all cap ex spending. 3) INTC is not investing in old technology for their fabs but high margin new technology that benefits companies like LRCX. 4) The new technologies that will drive the next growth area require higher powers in lower densities and that required new fabs. Even with initial low volumes and high prices, I can't see manufactures investing in old technologies. The need the great densities, higher powers and smaller form factors to differentiate their product from the competition will drive demand even in a poor pricing environment. 5) There are some general comment about the E component of the P/E ratio in the notes to myself on today's trading. Message 17113493 Somewhere in the middle of what I just wrote and what Mr. Pink wrote is the truth. The short term perception is what will drive the price of the stock though and dictate whether a long and a short position makes money. Since you know the stocks better than I do, what is your opinion on what view will dominate over the month of March/April as we approach the summer duldrum period of the year for stocks?