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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Neeka who wrote (19607)	2/26/2002 12:59:45 PM
From: engineer	Respond to of 196538

YES. Already answered that. the backhaul channel on TDMA is very similair to GSM. Mightylakers gave a much better detailed discussion of this. But YES. also see my post of Message 17113242

To: Neeka who wrote (19607)	2/26/2002 1:02:54 PM
From: mightylakers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196538

TDMA and CDMA use the same core networks. So replace the Basestations and you are ready to go. The only question is whether it is necessary to have TDMA/CDMA dual mode phone. Keep in mind that if you have the AMPS then it is possible to use the AMPS to cover the need before TDMA phones phased out.

To: Neeka who wrote (19607)	2/28/2002 12:48:48 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 196538

M, re: CDMA Market Share - Now and Future << Recent research has suggested that market share for 3g will be 63% by 2007 (up from between 13% and 19% CDMA now--all 3g is CDMA). I had been positing that CDMA market share would be 63% in '07 for my models. But now we have to re-examine. >> I would be most curious to know what market studies you are referring to that credit market share of CDMA today at greater than 13% or that project market share for "3G" (including all CDMA flavors) at 63% or greater in 2007. Going back several years, you could find some very aggressive studies that projected 3G passing 2G/2.5G (and at that time 1xRTT was universally considered to be "an interim step to 3G - not 3G - even by CDG) in 2007. I have not seen forecasts from any credible firm that are anywhere near that aggressive today - which is not to say that they don't exist. If you are aware of any I would appreciate it if you would reference them. This month Strategis published an update to previous forecasts that in fact used the "63%" number (63% of subs) for "next generation" (not 3G CDMA) subscribers in 2007. strategisgroup.com "Next generation" subscribers in their parlance means all subscribers that not only have a phone capable of packet-switched data but actually subscribe to packet-switched data services, and that includes GPRS which is clearly 2.5G, 1xRTT which some market studies call 2.5G and some call 3G, EDGE which some refer to as 2.5G and others as 3G. 1xEV (DO & DV) which are clearly 3G and WCDMA which is clearly 3G. "Next generation" kind of takes any arguments about whether this or that is "3G" out of the equation. Micrologic Research published forecasts this month and they have CDMA at 12.4% worldwide market share compared to EMC who has CDMA at 11.7% (12.2% of digital subs). mosmicro.com Micrologic Research projects 417 million of 2.185 billion subs (19.1%) will be cdmaOne/cdma2000 in 2006. They lump WCDMA in with GSM/GPRS/WCDMA (75.4% of 2006 subs), but project cumulative WCDMA handset shipments of 147.1 million by 2006. if you add the cumulative handset shipments (counting each one as a sub with no replacements - which is generous) and add it to the 417 CDMA million subs they project in 2006 then "CDMA" subs are 564.3 million or 26% of total worldwide subs. UMTS Forum projected (last August) 170 million "3G" subscribers in 2006 and 254 million in 2007. 1xRTT & 1xEV-DO are excluded from UMTS Forum's projections (1xEV-DO was not an IMT-2000 standard when the report was generated) but 3xRTT or 1XEV-DV were included. Their numbers track reasonably well with Micrologic Research's. Strategis is much more conservative with overall subscriber growth. Strategis is projecting 1.7 billion subs in 2007, while Micrologic and EMC are projecting that 1.7 billion subs will be passed in mid 2005. All FWIW. A lot can change between now and 2007 and looking out beyond 3 years is crystal ball gazing. Be that as it may, any projections of CDMA at better than 50% of worldwide Cellular/PCS subscribers is pretty aggressive, and I would be most interested in seeing references to any study that projects same. Best - Eric -