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Technology Stocks : Leap Wireless International (LWIN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: arun gera who wrote (1552)	2/27/2002 4:31:07 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2737

Thanks for the notes.... - LWIN initially thought consumers will like affordability of cricket. It seems they prefer the predictability more. Willing to pay $40-50 if there is predictability. I think at some point (probably soon) it is going to be worth testing the elasticity of demand for Cricket service. The two year old markets are selling the service for $29.95.....I wonder what type of churn would be caused by raising the price two or three dollars. It's hard to see most customers changing providers over a couple of dollars (AOL is the best example of this). Slacker

To: arun gera who wrote (1552)	2/27/2002 4:44:14 PM
From: pcstel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2737

- LWIN initially thought consumers will like affordability of cricket. It seems they prefer the predictability more. Willing to pay $40-50 if there is predictability. [Edit- slacker already posted this data on the post below..] Important data.. 11 million out of Cricket's 25 million Covered POP's are in the $29.95 monthly service fee areas! I would guess that a price increase up to $32.95 per month would increase ARPU to $39 to $40 dollar range. 10 markets will become EBITDA in First quarter. More every quarter depending on the launch dates. Most of these first quarter markets are older $29.95 markets. A price increase to $32.95 would increase COS margins another 10%, which should fall directly to improve EBITDA. In addition. $32.95 markets should become EBITDA positive faster than the $29.95 markets if penetration levels are the same! That is why I call for EBITDA positive in Q3 vs. Q4 as guidance. PCSTEL

To: arun gera who wrote (1552)	2/27/2002 5:08:16 PM
From: Sawtooth	Respond to of 2737

Thanks for the highlights. Most appreciated. ...VVVVVVVVV

To: arun gera who wrote (1552)	2/27/2002 6:49:25 PM
From: Jack Bridges	Respond to of 2737

Since most customers are young, middle class, one way to promote $10/10" for older segment would be to target young to make a gift to their parents. There are not many ways for a loving son/daughter to make such a concerned gift. Parent could take over monthly cost, and some would upgrade, if only to stay in closer contact with the donor.

To: arun gera who wrote (1552)	2/27/2002 7:27:28 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2737

Arun, thanks for the conference notes. On this item: <Non-selling cash cost of service is $9/month/sub for a typical CDMA carrier. $5.56/month/sub for LWIN. Reason: Fewer cell sites. Cell sites only cover 70 percent of the POPs in each market. Less backhaul costs and less technicians.> As competition mounts, that doesn't seem much of a price difference. I wonder if subscribers won't increasingly prefer to get coverage, even for $3.44 extra per month. Prices are getting so low that convenience, coverage, functionality, phone options, cyberspeed and other matters will predominate in subscribers' minds rather than feeling comfortable and predictable with a lower cost per month. I believe the predictable nature of the Leap service is not so important as the lack of sticker shock when accidentally going over the bucket plan of minutes [which I believe is what they mean by 'predictable'. The competitors could offer predictability by showing the current price per minute and expenditure so far [and amount remaining in credit] on the phone rather than offering the annoying plans where you have to take a guess at how many pints of milk you want for a month, then use them or lose them. People prefer to just pay for what they use. I believe people prefer to not have to guess [=predictability] and prefer either to eat all they like or pay for what they do eat. The buffet or the a la carte menu are the models which work in restaurants. The buffet saves the cost of measuring, individualizing and arguing over bills, but it means greedy pigs get a better deal. Still trying to figure it out, Mq PS: Good suggestion Jack [for offspring to give oldies a $10/10minute phone for Xmas, Birthday, Mother's Day, Father's Day, Thanksgiving Day, Saturday...