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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (8608)	3/1/2002 10:25:59 AM
From: Alan Hume	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 36161

Hi FRank, agreed, US foreign policy, with the recent exceptions of Grenada, Kosovo and Afganistan has a habit of being in tune with their oil supply interests. If a war (aggression)is likely in the ME; then I would guess that Iraq would be the likely target. But I don't believe that Iraq is an exporter to the US, and would any Arab neighbours sympathise that them if there were to be an incident? Short term, it would certainly cause a sharp up turn in oil prices, but it would be very short term I believe. Nevertheless, I agree with you, it is a possibility AH

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (8608)	3/1/2002 11:11:24 PM
From: Step1	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36161

Frank, to the thread, my private rant on Japan To thread, this is my own opinion and it may be only worth what you paid for . . . at your own risk. from a message I just wrote to a friend in Canada: >>Yup, don`t worry my trading is not going to interfere with my sports activities. In fact that is one reason I need to stay active. I just bought an aluminium frame mountain bike so I can commute to work. I should be able to get about 25 kms a day, 3 days a week, perhaps moving to 4 days a week in April. I have been putting on some weight lately, just got to be careful as I turned 36 two weeks ago. More reports of electronics makers troubles on the news lately with the spring union activities going on now in Japan. Lay-offs are definitely a big big political thing, anywhere, but now I think it has reached a point where you are going to see more agitation among the people about it. Also avariety show on the public channel yesterday about people at the end of their rope . . . 5 company presidents carrying from 500,000 usd to 4 million usd of loans and not being able to make payments. They line them up on a stage (sort of a Jerry Springer show) and then have a group of panelist from various layers of society (known artists, writers , business figures ) give them advice on how to revive their companies. At the end the panelists have to debate on how to award (who to award ) a 25,000 usd grant to the most deserving company to thank the company presidents to come on the show. I t was a two hour special. Just to show you that the state of the Japanese economy is on the front burner and that there is a desperate feeling to it this past year. Car sales overall down 5.9% this past year, truck sales down 22 % . . . Also had specials on another channel on a big electronics maker, Oki Denki, and its rehabilitation plans. Brain washing and group motivation for the employees in the morning in the form of morning chants ... etc . . . The way I look at it is that everyone is racing to see who is going to have the lowest cost , spiraling down , laying off people, trying to service the debt (which seems to be the only constant) while the demand end of the equation just isnt there and shows no sign of reviving. We have all we could possibly want in Japan really. They can all race each other to be the lowest producer and still , even producing at a loss, people say , with their wallet, we don`t need it, thank you. I don`t know if you knew that but gold purchases here are taxed 5% just like any other purchases, so people plunking thousands of dollars on gold bars are taking an immediate hit ( on top of the 1% spread on the bar and some handling commissions although on really big purchases they are probably waived). The gold bullion dealer promises to eat the 5% when they repurchase the bar if unopen and unaltered when you decide to resell to them, but that is assuming that will be true and that they will still be around. So people must feel pretty insecure about their holding to switch to gold. Mariko Tanaka, the foreign minister fired from her post for taking Koisumi to his word and trying to enact some true reforms in the Foreign service, has said that Koizumi no longer stands for reform and has now pull back and possibly joined the anti reform faction on some fronts. The Japanese government is again embroiled in a scandal of influence peddling, meddling and rigged bidding to favor political allies, with the result that the opposition parties have banded together to block debates in parlement and therefore delay talks on an emergency stimulus budget until their claim that the senator involved in the scandal be tried and expelled from parlement are heard. Odd facts: Daiei (super market chain operator) owes close to 17 billion dollars Hitachi just lost about 4 billion Mitsubishi Denki went from estimates of a 20 million profit to losses of 600 million Car sales down 5.9 % Unemployment near record levels (5.3% , although many commentators now say that if the European system was used to tally the numbers, you `d have to multiply by two) Sales of wholesalers and retailers down 5.4 with the 12 th consecutive month of declines Market openly, publicly supported as per state minister for economic and fiscal policy as in : " we must respond flexibly to stock prices and asset prices even in the short run, given that their movement are drawing close attention with the approach of the (March 31) end of the fiscal year" Heizo Takenaka. And in the same article, Japan ratings face further downgrade . . . Now can anyone tell me why the DOW keeps climbing and trashing my puts ? << stephan