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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (20412)	3/2/2002 12:14:04 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi Nadine Carroll; One of the points about the Vietnam death toll is that it really doesn't take a heck of a lot of combat deaths to make a country quit fighting --- if their back isn't up against the wall. The Israelis and the Palestinians both have their backs up against the wall. No one is going to cry "uncle" over a few deaths per day. Sure, both sides cry at the funerals, but once the real death toll begins they'll soon become used to it. I agree with you that they're probably killing more trees in the news print that it generates than people. A few hundred per day for the better part of a decade may end the conflict. On the other hand, the national existence of, for instance, Germany wasn't at issue, so maybe it will take more. *There are examples of wars where the losing nation didn't give up until 66% of their male population was killed or incapacitated in combat.* For instance, according to the CIA fact book: "In the disastrous War of the Triple Alliance (1865-70), Paraguay lost two-thirds of all adult males* and much of its territory.*" cia.gov What's worse, the above conflict had none of the deep enmity that the Arabs and Israelis show for each other. The various sides all spoke more or less the same language, had not too dissimilar governments, and shared the same religious beliefs. There was no great slaughter of civilians, just a 5 year meat grinder. But this is an extreme example. Paraguay was badly outnumbered, and just didn't know when to call it quits and surrender gracefully. By the way, there is a very strong correlation between countries that are poor and have high birth rates and countries that are willing to continue fighting despite truly debilitating combat losses. It's almost as if countries with lots of kids and no money, don't mind as much seeing them die. Or perhaps when a mother only has one son she isn't quite as sure that sending him into a horrible, brutal and stupid meat grinder is a good idea. There are always other options. In this measure (i.e. willingness to take combat losses), the Palestinians have the Israelis beat hands down. If this conflict really turns into a war of attrition, the Israelis will either have to kill a lot more Palestinians than they lose of their own, or they are going to be asking for surrender terms long before the Palestinians. Note that a guerilla war is in stark contrast to the blitzkriegs that have characterized Israel's successful wars. It's possible to make Syria cry uncle by threatening to march through Damascus, but Palestine is already occupied. -- Carl

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (20412)	3/2/2002 8:39:48 AM
From: SirRealist	Respond to of 281500

Did a quick search for that Life photo project; I was unsuccessful. But I found a resource some Viet Vets might find useful: vwip.org This link at least describes the Life article and says 242 died that week: trinity.manchstr.sch.uk And I found the supporting text: geronimo-vietnam.com

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (20412)	3/5/2002 9:34:18 PM
From: TimF	Respond to of 281500

If you count from the Gulf of Tonkin in 1964 to the last American's leaving in 1975 you get 11 years. 11 x 52 give you 572 weeks. (Yes I know I'm not considering the different dates within the years but I'm also not counting the period before Tonkin when we had "advisors" in Vietnam. If all the deaths where within that period it would be about 100 a week. Not all the deaths where during that period but a majority of them where so even with all the rounding errors I figure during those 9 years it must have been at least 80 a week dead. Tim