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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (36021)	3/2/2002 9:05:13 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

I got a PM on this referenced post and so I will state the issue for the bulls in simple form: Was the rise in the comp. due primarily due to increased complacency as illustrated in my post or due to something else? If you think it was primarily complacency, then would you not need more of the same go higher? Issue then becomes whether you can get it with such a low relative reading already and the probability that Friday was a pivot day for the Vix. And the secondary issue is what will the Comp. be at Vix 28 the next time around? It won't be 1805 in my book. It will be much lower consistent with the trend and a new local low IMO.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (36021)	3/2/2002 9:36:07 AM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

Justa As posted to Zeev, with the R over, we may not get a "bottom signal" as a result of panic selling? (1) Broker calls client and tells him to sell because the econ numbers say the R is over. (2) Broker calls client and tells him to sell because Greenspan says the R is over. (3) Broker calls client and tells him to sell because VIX is low(GGGG) The bear died on Sep 21, 2001 and even Bob B knows that. IMHO My problem is different then yours, I got the "real world"(stock prices) breaking out with Fed Model already 3.8% overvalued and $BPCOMPQ still over 45. Larry Dudash

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (36021)	3/2/2002 7:31:35 PM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

VIX at low level: While I believe there's also a long term trend toward a lowering of the upside and downside limits on the VIX, my own chart of Jake Bernstein's index of Nasdaq trader sentiment is showing a similar pattern to what you've noted. 3dy mov ave is 67% bullish, and 5dy mov ave is 71% bullish. These readings are slightly above the sentiment peak reached in mid-Feb when the Nasdaq peaked near 1880, and slightly below the sentiment peak reached in early January, just before the Nasdaq peaked at 2099. That's part of the reason I sold my remaining Nasdaq position on Friday at the close. Glad to take the extra 4%. Thank you very much.