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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: minnow68 who wrote (72999)	3/2/2002 9:18:43 PM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Put this all another way, since the percentage of trades taken in commissions is of the same order of magnitude of the house take in a casino, why would you not expect the majority of long term customers in both venues to show the same profit/loss profile? Mike, in a casino you are playing against random chance. You will always lose in the long run when your odds are below 50%. That should be obvious to everyone. Do you think people pick their options trades by using a random symbol generator? If you can't see the difference then I suggest you stay far away from options trading. Right now AMD is near the lower end if it's trading range. The probability of trading even or higher is greater here than it would be at the high end of it's trading range. The droids here think it is much higher. The dynamics at work here are not purely random. AMD has given the impression that they are in a fairly stable position with potential for upside. I don't believe it but we're dealing with market perceptions here, not just the view of a knowledgeable semiconductor professional. It will be some time before AMD's troubles are visible enough to change market perceptions. The probability of AMD dropping significantly from here in the short term are less than the probability of staying even or going up. If you think this is just a crap shoot then I just don't think you know what you're talking about. EP