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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scott C. Lemon who wrote (37832)	3/4/2002 6:29:12 AM
From: zwolff	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42771

I think Craig Burton gives a very good analysis of what has been going on at NOVL, its prospects and relevancy. No need to read 1000 posts... Regarding management and leadership at NOVL the last paragraph is very explicit: craigburton.com ================article and discussion============ Too little too late? As Novell conitues to wallow in irrelevancy, Messman finally made a significant organization move. He axed Stewart Nelson. This speaks well for Messman. Stewart has not been good for Novell at all. Stewart is obviously a skilled polititian, but not a strategist or technologist. Novell was doomed to continue in its current spiral under his leadership. However, Messman is neither a strategist nor a technologist. He is also disconnected from Novell's history. The solution to Novell's problems is not going to come from Messman. It appears that he understands this problem and has re-hired Stone to design a strategy. Stone is both technically adept and a solid strategist. However, he too is disconnected from Novell's history and core competence. The question is, can Stone finish up the job of cleaning out the Nelson legacy (more heads to roll) and come up with a viable strategy soon enough to make a difference. The fact that Stone took his money and walked in the middle of things previously leaves this answer up for question. Here is my assesement: Stone, unlike Nelson, at least seems willing to listen. If so, that is good for Messman and Novell. There is still a huge mismatch between Cambridge's business model, and Novell's business model, this mismatch is yet to be resolved. Cambridge was a vendor independent consulting firm and Novell was an independent software vendor. Collapsing the two makes no sense. To correct this mismatch, it means even more change and disruption in Cambridge and Provo. Obviously the core business at Cambridge has got to go. Things get even uglier. While the core Cambridge Technology business is likely to tank, Messman and Stone are both based in Mass. Nobody seems to want to move to Provo to run the core business. Novell is likely to be more embroiled in its own mess than dealing with market realities. An actual strategy for Novell has yet to emerge. At the same time, there is incredible untapped talent and technology at Novell. I love a good paradox. As an optimist, I always think it is never too late. But to date, Novell is like the Latin America of Software Companies: the leadership is more interested in lining their own pockets than creating a long term strategy for a country capable of holding its own. At least it will be interesting to watch and blog about. - Discuss Barry Cohen - Re: Too little too late? 2/27/2002; 11:06:23 AM (reads: 383, responses: 0) Good going Craig. I know in your heart of hearts you still wish the best for Novell. I've been following the company, working with the company, selling the product, writing about them, and trying to figure out Novell for too many years. My company has worked with Novell for years, and lately they've been unable to sustain discussions on new projects, let alone keep a team involved in a project through it's duration. Novell builds some of the best solutions for business networks on the market, but there's no reponse in the marketplace for their products. "Common Knowledge" from competitors and target customers is that Novell is dead, or dying, but like a chicken with its head cut off, doesn't know it. I don't really believe this either, but they haven't done anything that would change the hearts and minds. After all, they don't have anyone by the balls, to quote Chuck Colson. I'm not sure about the Cambridge merger, but one thing is sure, Novell needs more than a strategy, they need a charismatic leader to drive that strategy with analysts, business partners and customers. In fact the leader is more important than the strategy. Look at what Steve Jobs has done for Apple. And I agree with the greed factor. Sometimes I think that much of the computer industry is on shakier ground than Enron, but don't get me started. Barry Cohen Discuss Amy Wohl - Re: Too little too late? 2/28/2002; 9:03:00 AM (reads: 84, responses: 0) Craig, I agree that Novell has made itself as close to completely irrelevant as any company I've ever seen. It's a shame because they have some compelling IP that could actually be exploited if anyone at the top knew what it was for. I can't imagine that two guys in Cambridge are going to do much with a bunch of developers in Provo. I believe that Novell management (and I['m guessing, because heaven knows no one at Novell thinks they should let an analyst in on what they're doing) thinks that they're running a consulting and systems integration firm that happens to own some IP that may or may not be useful. Just the reverse of what you think. Of course, Chris could prove me wrong, but he'll have to communicate that to us first. I haven't heard a single word from Novell directed to the analysts in years. Certainly not since Messman came on board. I barely bother to pay attention to them. Amy Wohl