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To: runes who wrote (61338)	3/4/2002 1:53:58 PM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 70976

Runes, I agree. It will take a little work to get solidly back into the 1850-2100 range it had traded in for so long. My view is 1900-1925 and a pullback as well.

To: runes who wrote (61338)	3/4/2002 3:04:16 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 70976

Great post runes... I am taking profits on certain long-term positions today. I am considering either staying in cash or moving to some very short term short positions by Thursday or Friday. Can the SOX close firmly above 600 without more help from INTC? Color me doubtful. Thanks for sharing your insight. RtS

To: runes who wrote (61338)	3/4/2002 3:12:05 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I am taking profits now In AMAT, SLR, GTW, JNPR, AMAT or NVLS? Have you sold out any of these positions entirely? Is this in addition to your "lightening up" on Friday? What did you lighten up on then? Did you do any "nibbling" during Feburary's weakness, other than the AMAT '04 35 calls?

To: runes who wrote (61338)	3/4/2002 3:13:32 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

re: Too far, too fast? Yes, emphatically. Sold at 50, half of the shares I bought last Fall at 30. The other half goes at 55. The shares I bought at 27.5, get sold, if 60 and 65 happen. My general rule on selling here: Assume an economic recovery. Assume business spending on tech comes back by late 2002. Using the above, guess 2003 EPS and sales. Be optimistic. Decide what the upper end of a reasonable PE or P/S is, for my holdings. Conclusion: stock prices above that level, clearly indicate a re-inflation of the Bubble. Bubbles, by definition, always deflate, sooner or later. Since I'm not willing to play the Greater Fool Stock Market No Limit Poker game (I'm not Bernie Ebbers): Plan: Sell, in increments, when we reach those stock prices. Continue selling, as high as we go. In this latest dip (is it over?), I began at 35% cash, used it all up, and started using margin in late February (a modest amount). With today's sale, I am back off margin. Tentatively (this is a hesitant and approximate guess), I'd say an intermediate-term rally could bring the Nas above 2099 (the January 2002 intermediate-term peak). This would bring us back into the region where the Nas stalled from April to August 2001 (2000-2300). That area seems like a likely area for the upcoming rally to stall. We've had a lot of news, in the last 3 months, indicating a turn in business fundamentals. In spite of that, the herd of investors stampeded South, last month, selling off stocks. We gave back almost precisely half (a Fib number) of the September-to-January gains. That was why I was willing to start using margin at Nas 1800, rather than my previously-stated plan of using margin beginning at Nas 1400. Maybe the herd stampedes North for a while, now. I have no idea what happens next, but I know what my plan is for the likely futures. In the January 2002 rally, my portfolio got to within 15% of my April 2000 peak. If we see Nas 2300, I'll get above that high-water mark, which has stood for almost 2 years. And, once I get there, I am going to grasp that wealth in a very, very, very, very firm grip, and HoldOntoIt, this time around.

To: runes who wrote (61338)	3/6/2002 12:26:31 PM
From: Sam Citron	Respond to of 70976

Shifting expectations for INTC midQ report tomorrow: Intel (INTC: news, chart, profile) rose 2 cents to $32.70 as investors mull the chipmaker's intentions at its Thursday midquarter investor update after the close of trading. Merrill Lynch told clients it expects the company to raise its revenue target to the upper half of its range, to $6.7 billion to 7 billion from $6.4 billion to $7 billion. "Intel's target for the March quarter was conservative given the fact that the company already had bookings in place at the beginning of the quarter to support $6.7 billion in revenue," Merrill's Joe Osha wrote in a note to clients. On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley raised its rating on the stock to "strong buy." marketwatch.com