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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wizard who wrote (10777)	3/8/2002 11:18:49 AM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

lightreading.com

To: Wizard who wrote (10777)	3/8/2002 12:03:14 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 57684

Are we dealing with a new Bull Market...?? CIBC call sees beginning of a new bull By Chris Bolin National Post Subodh Kumar, managing director of institutional equity research at CIBC World Markets, says recent strength in North American stock markets is the beginning of a larger bull market. Investors concerned the market is in the midst of another false rally shouldn't worry, the investing braintrust at CIBC World Markets assured clients yesterday. A new bull market was born last September and better than expected news on the earnings front is going to keep it running, they said. In a semi-annual update to clients, Subodh Kumar, CIBC's chief strategist and Jeff Rubin, the firm's chief economist, told investors the economy is set to bounce faster and higher than expected and there's no need to wait for further evidence before buying into equities. "In a nutshell, look at earnings momentum as a theme in the market," Mr. Kumar said. "We think that momentum will be lasting well into the end of this year and as happens in a traditional early cycle environment, earnings above expectations will drive the stock market." The strategist's bullish call on stocks has been largely unchanged for the last year. In April, Mr. Kumar made a major shift to equities, recommending clients move from a balanced portfolio to one 75% skewed to stocks. When he made that call, he expected the TSE 300 to rise from 7733 points to 9500 points by this April. The index closed at 7944 yesterday. Mr. Kumar still forecasts the TSE 300 will reach 9500 by year-end, a gain of 20% from yesterday's close. His latest target for the S&P 500 is 1450 points, which would represent a gain of 25% from yesterday's close. Still, after a "savage assault" on corporate profits that lasted for more than two years, stocks are preparing to rebound, said Mr. Rubin. With inventories at record low levels it won't take much demand growth to turn around industrial production, "beginning what should be a long and spirited recovery in that sector," he said. CIBC's boldest call is to go overweight industrial products, 27% versus a weight of 17.6% in the S&P 500. Along with industrials, Mr. Rubin sees investing in Mexican markets as the savviest way to play a recovery in manufacturing output. "With 90% of exports manufactured goods, Mexico has an even greater window on pickup in U.S. industrial [production] than Canada." While economic recoveries never spell good news for bondholders, interest rates will not be raised as quickly as the market is anticipating, he continued. "The Fed is likely to raise interest rates only half as much as the market expects and probably not at all until the latter half of the year." phaavardsrud@nationalpost.com

To: Wizard who wrote (10777)	3/8/2002 12:59:44 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Respond to of 57684

What does this Marrill analyst have to say about ONI? Does he have a quota now? Like he has any clue what 2004 earnings will be. This is laughable: Ciena (CIEN) 9.42 -0.28 : Ouch. Merrill Lynch is reinitiating coverage of this optical networking stock with a near-term Reduce/Sell rating and a long-term Neutral. Negative factors cited include customer concentration, key customers slashing spending, excess network capacity, increasing competition, and operating expenses out of line with sales. Get this! The firm puts a fair value at $5.30 per share, or about 30x projected 2004 earnings (plus cash). This is really a remarkable call for a number of reasons. First, how often does Merrill goto a Long Term Neutral? They are one of the few firms that have both near and long term views in its ratings system. Usually, if the firm is negative on a stock, they downgrade the near term rating, but do not anger the company too much by saying long term it's a buy. So a long term Neutral is pretty bearish. Also, when sell side firms are negative, they usually do not put a specific fair value on a stock as that really gets management and investors upset. Here, Merrill's fair value represents a 44% decline from even this beaten down level....With the analysts being a prime target for the market collapse over the last couple of years and the Enron debacle, we expect to see more bearish ratings from firms. This example allows us to remind investors that when a firm is negative on a stock, it's less likely the call is being influenced by a conflict of interest (namely investment banking business) so you can add more weight to it. The skeptics out there could argue that firms go negative when they do not get picked for banking deals in order to extract revenge for being passed over. On the recently announced Ciena/ONI Systems deal, Morgan Stanley advised Ciena while Goldman Sachs advised ONI. Think what you will, but we stand by our thesis that negative calls are more believable. -- Robert J. Reid, Briefing.com

To: Wizard who wrote (10777)	3/8/2002 1:12:17 PM
From: techanalyst1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

You're exactly right on the chart formation on the naz on a longer term chart. But you should know that it's not a confirmed pattern until the neckline is broken to the upside. Some stocks are undervalued because the street hasn't factored in upside in earnings. The telcos? Who can tell what earnings will be? I don't think the analysts are going to get it right any more than they did at the top. I still think that they're an important sector for the econ. TA