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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TheBusDriver who wrote (9179)	3/10/2002 9:22:55 AM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Wayne & Thread. Shifted trdg tactics 2 wks ago to recovery mode. as my work gave early warning we were completing a very important bottom in the NG sector. Like most major bottoms, the overwhelming majority (of both individual and institutional players) missed it and have continued to disbelieve the rally and sit on the sidelines. This in spite of the obvious power and momentum that strong evidence further price gains as the year progresses. Have seen this same text book sentiment environment combined with powerful tape action off every major sector low during the years I've been in this biz. AFA timing such major sector bottoms? Nothing special about me. Just years of refining my style & tactical skills after the extraordinary luck to have learned so much from strategists like Bob Farrell, Lou Smith, Phil Roth (when I worked on WS) and thereafter from a few talented independent traders nobody here has ever heard of. Anyway....after my heavy buying spree 2 wks ago (names were posted here in real time), the tactics have changed to buy the dips AND.....do a lot less selling at ST rally peaks. Want to hold onto some very low cost basis positions, especially in my taxable accounts. Even in the Roth, expect holding periods to stretch out into the 1-5 month Intermediate range. Cash probably 35-40%, down from 80% less than a month ago (also per previous posts). This is my favorite kind of market environment. Even though we have a weak and sub-standard economic recovery? A lot of money will be made on the upside by " the few" who got in early and got in big a few weeks ago. Bookmark this post if you want. Or trust me<g>, in a few months you'll be seeing the bullish arguments for the secular bull market in NG being trotted out with enthusiasm by the financial media with cut and past distribution on web boards. Same thing happened in 1999 - 2000. In the first 3 or 4 months of 1999, while I was loading the boat and posting my contrarian bullish opinion (along with my buys on several yahoo threads) the majority continued to be bearish on the patch as the stocks made large %age gains, during those months. Wasn't till April or even May of 1999 that recognition of the trend began to sink in with the majority. Because human nature never changes, once you eliminate self defeating emotions and step back from the crowd enough to recognize important turning points (or "trade the trader" as Slider once aptly put it) this seemingly crazy game becomes a very consistent money making business - cycle after cycle. Don't have any time to respond to replies or post more today. But hope I've offered everyone some worthwhile food for thought. Cheers, Isopatch