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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Perspective who wrote (33872)	3/10/2002 5:21:17 PM
From: sun-tzu	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

But what is wrong with holding gold mining stocks and shorting as a secular bear market investing strategy? nothing wrong with the miners, but the POG spike to $309 was as much of a stone cold sell signal as i've seen. some would argue tax implications as a reason for not bailing with a planned reentry. i suppose this has merit although allowing monstrous gains to evaporate never made much sense to me. others held waiting for the POG move to $500...LOL, that's no different than buying some bogus inet company and looking for beachside real estate to buy with your riches. as for shorting as an investment, nothing wrong with that either. i would just do it in 100 share lots. of course this mandates entry and exit analysis. a) finding Company X at a good value in the depths of a bear market, buying and holding until it's quintupled, and selling when it is overvalued -and- b) finding Company Y after it's quintupled, at the end of a bull market, shorting and holding until it's returned to reasonable valuation, and covering? sure, but why people were trashing me for going long AMZN at 10-11 i'll never know. what more did they want? they still are probably insisting it MUST go BK. as an example, i was long AES from 5.15 and bailed at 7.24 on my trading position. sour grapes because it's over $8 now? not at all! 40% in 3 days...i dropped that POS like a bad habit! take your money! as for holding foreign currency, i don't get it. what's the expected return there? why not just buy TIPS and be happy with the guaranteed income. instead, the dollar remains strong and you're giving yourself agita. Therefore, everything is bought to be sold amen willis! I disagree with the common notion that markets predominantly go up. My observation would be that they spend roughly equal time going up vs. down, usually in rough 40-year cycles, but they go up more in the up phases than they go down in the down phases. that sounds like default up to me. i said default up not predominantly up. that's one reason why shorts get hosed all the time. short covering spikes/bear market rallies freak them out. and finally, in no way do i feel like i know everything. after all, i can always count on tip and marginmike to point that out...LOL. it's just that a couple things you said i felt were classic, and easily correctable, bear mistakes. if i am not mistaken, only 15% of reaper's net worth is in equities...both short and long. most hard core bears are way too 'invested' in equities and can't stomach the downdrafts...i.e. rallies. don't let the market get to you. if it does you can not make good decisions. spend time with family and friends and scale down a bit. i'll bet you make a lot more money.