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To: axial who wrote (9002)3/11/2002 5:13:32 PM
From: Montana Wildhack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14101
 
Jim,

Just to continue the discussion about the near term
market possibilities, I thought this paragraph from the
CEOcast weekly letter summed up part of the issue well.

Last year at this time, the S&P 500 traded at a price-to-earnings multiple of 24 prior year’s earnings, which many believed was overvalued by historical standards. Today, it trades at a P/E of over 30 times trailing earnings. This suggests that companies would have to increase earnings by 20% just to get back to levels of last year. Despite this, the Nasdaq is 10% above where it was at this time last year, while the Dow is virtually unchanged. If investors need a further reminder about valuation, Sunday marked the two-year anniversary of the Nasdaq’s peak at over 5,000. The S&P 500 trades at a multiple of 21 times current year’s earnings, which compares to historical levels of 15 to 16 times earnings.