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Gold/Mining/Energy : Nuvo Research Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Montana Wildhack who wrote (9010)	3/11/2002 11:31:38 PM
From: axial	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14101

Brer Wolf - "Last year at this time, the S&P 500 traded at a price-to-earnings multiple of 24 prior year’s earnings, which many believed was overvalued by historical standards. Today, it trades at a P/E of over 30 times trailing earnings. This suggests that companies would have to increase earnings by 20% just to get back to levels of last year. Despite this, the Nasdaq is 10% above where it was at this time last year, while the Dow is virtually unchanged. If investors need a further reminder about valuation, Sunday marked the two-year anniversary of the Nasdaq’s peak at over 5,000. The S&P 500 trades at a multiple of 21 times current year’s earnings, which compares to historical levels of 15 to 16 times earnings" Those are pretty ugly statistics, aren't they? I'm sure you're aware that there are a few more, calculated to make you turn a whiter shade of pale. Out of the woods? Not by a long shot - the market is a dangerous place these days. Let's just assume for a minute, that it's July; the TSE has fallen to about 5400, NASDAQ to around 1400. DMX has released outstanding WF10 results, and is seeking an IPO on NASDAQ. Pennsaid is being marketed in Europe, the US, and Canada. If we're forecasting a reversion to historical norms, then a good pharma story should sell at 8 to 20 times forward earnings (as opposed to the present 20 to 35). Assuming FDA Fast Track, we can forecast earnings in f2003 for WF10, in addition to Pennsaid. Let's take di7026's conservative figure of 50,000 AIDS sufferers, and cut that in half : 25,000. Let's assume they get a course of WF10 treatment, at about (I misremember) $6500 US, less non-drug costs, say $2000 US to DMX in revenue. $50,000,000 US This figure ignores off-label usage, or changes in thinking that predispose AIDS treatment at an earlier stage. What is J+J thinking of. I agree with an earlier post by you, where they would likely be targeting ~2%(+) of the market, but what are first-year sales going to be?(ie., f2003) Another guess, conservative: $33M US, $20 million revenue to DMX. OK, throw in another $5 million US for the rest of the world, Pennsaid. Revenue: $75,000,000 US. Shares O/S, Nasdaq + TSE: 60 million. Roughly $1.25/share. ____________________________________________ Old metric P/E at 8 to 20 equals $10 US to $25. "The buzz" - Assuming strong P3 and Fast Track, P3 for Hep C and who knows what else almost a certainty. P2 for Oxoferin. Add a buck a share for "the buzz". But... what do these figures say about f2004? They say share price should grow steadily through 2003. _________________________________________________ My guesstimates. No warranty implied. FWIW. YMMV. Getouttahere! Potshots, criticisms, and rabid disagreement welcomed, but not necessarily acknowledged. Jim