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Gold/Mining/Energy : Nuvo Research Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: axial who wrote (9012)	3/13/2002 12:42:35 AM
From: axial	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14101

Wolf, I'd like to amend that post, a bit... First, on the WF10 assumption: strong P3 results, with FDA Fast Track. Wildly optimistic maybe, but that's the basis of my investment. Second, in my haste, I used the term "revenue" when I should have said "earnings". My guesstimates were perhaps too optimistic on the WF10 earnings. I took the $6500 cost for a course of treatment, took off $3500 for non-drug costs, leaving $3000; at 2/3 margin that gives DMX $2000 in earnings. I really have no idea, but doesn't that sound a little high? I'd like to amend that to $6500 US; $4300 non-drug costs, leaving $2200 for the cost of WF10. With 2/3 going to earnings, that makes $1500 US per course per patient. Re-doing the math, that works out to 25,000$1500, or $37,500,000 US in earnings. Again, This figure ignores off-label usage, or changes in thinking that predispose AIDS treatment at an earlier stage. J+J, the same: f2003, $33M US, $20 million earnings* to DMX, for US Pennsaid sales OK, throw in another $2.5 million US for the rest of the world, Pennsaid, in earnings.(I've cut this one by half). Earnings: $60,000,000 US. Shares O/S, Nasdaq + TSE: 60 million. (this assumes an IPO of 15 million shares on NASDAQ) Call it a buck a share, in earnings. If the markets take a dive, and we revert to the old PE ratios for pharma, then that gives us a share price of $8 to $20 US. Plus the "buzz" factor. I don't know about my US Pennsaid estimate - it's a real shot in the dark. Do you think it's too optimistic for f2003? Finally, I'd like to replace "July" with "September". That's a better time for an IPO, anyway. ;- ) Regards, Jim