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To: reaper who wrote (155932)	3/15/2002 6:47:20 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 436258

interesting article but that dood has it completely backwards. money supply and long rates are gonna collapse; That wouldn't surprise me. Bill Gross at Pimco talked about short rates having to go up to get long rates down. Either way, you can stick a fork in equities.

To: reaper who wrote (155932)	3/15/2002 6:54:28 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

good thing I bought ome TNX at 54.27 this morn-ng- that scenario soesnt bode well for equities, IMHO

To: reaper who wrote (155932)	3/15/2002 9:00:43 PM
From: sun-tzu	Respond to of 436258

...but when i added more NXTL (uh...i have A LOT). still holding UPCS (size). this market is about to take off again. go wireless telecomm, (~)^(~)

To: reaper who wrote (155932)	3/15/2002 10:09:24 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

why isn't the bond market looking past the recovery BS right NOW, reaper?? I know next to nothing about bonds -- is it a question of allocation to higher yielding issues that is killing treasuries -- people continuing to snap up trash on the theory that things really are going to improve and the idea that default rates have peaked -- maybe I should be buying strips or funds that hold them, on the next selloff?? Also what if FDI reverses direction substantially at the same time folks here are recognizing there will be no recovery. If the USD starts a real decline -- we know it has to at some pt for exports to recover or to help any prospects for a real recovery -- will the yield and hopes of capital gains keep foreigners holding on while their USD positions are shrinking? I'm with the theme, but not sure about the entry pt ...

To: reaper who wrote (155932)	3/16/2002 12:47:53 AM
From: Simba	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

If long rates fall to a 3 handle that could spur another round of mortgage refis and that will help service the debt.

To: reaper who wrote (155932)	3/16/2002 9:17:36 PM
From: JBTFD	Respond to of 436258

FRom what I've read of Hamilton he seems to think that credit based spending (housing and autos) will go through a deflation* while cash based spending (normal cost of living stuff) will inflate because of the increasing MZM supply. The cynical side of me sees this as reasonable because it dis-empowers the most amount of people. Another kicker advantage would be that because housing is about 40% of CPI, the lowering housing prices would offset any increases in other sectors so they could still say inflation is low. *this deflation will be caused by a combination of mortgage defaults and, for the people who can afford it, paying down of their mortgage (where else can you get a tax free guaranteed return of even 6 or 7%)