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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (41287)	3/16/2002 3:18:42 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

Looks as if VIX 10 DMA is lowest since August 2000. I think there is a good chance we bounce around the top here on the SPX and I would not be surprised to see a higher high here on an upthrust which may well be the shorting opportunity of the year, although right now is very nice IMO. stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[de][pb50!b10][vc60]&pref=G

To: mishedlo who wrote (41287)	3/16/2002 4:51:04 PM
From: ChrisJP	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Hi mish -- the forces at work on the market are simple to understand. Predicting how the market will do based on them is not. Like I said last week in this post, I never said anything I post will help make anyone any money, lol. Message 17176272 Hey ! I got that "1930 represents strong resistance" call right ! lol. My guess -- just a guess -- the markets will drift lower until April 5th. Oversold stochastic plus warnings season plus seasonal redemptions (its tax time, lol). Longer term: Factoring out the possibility that some tragic occurrence will shock the markets, I think the markets won't do much. How about: S&P 500 -- between 1000 and 1250. NASDAQ: Between 1600 and 2200. The market is caught in a tug-of-war caused by: 1. Valuations are high, but not obscenely high 2. The economy is recovering, but will continue to send out mixed signals. We could double-dip but it won't be a bad double-dip. (Unless Japan goes belly up or something). 3. Interest rates are low as is unemployment. Both will most likely rise but not terribly so. 4. Nobody want to be the dummy who buys at the top or sells at the bottom. In the past 2 years, people have been burned doing both. I'm waiting for the 50 dEMA and 200 dEMA to do their thing. They've been pretty good at representing the broader trend. quote.yahoo.com^IXIC&d=c&k=c2&a=v&p=e50,e200&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l At some point, that red line is gonna cross that green line, lol !! Maybe after Zeev's fabled summer swoon. Chris