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To: orkrious who wrote (156019)	3/17/2002 9:49:13 AM
From: flint	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

There is another thread for Real Estate crash. 4 months ago I stated home builders will survive just fine. It's the home owners and the lenders that will get sacked. I was right. The builders are mobile. 90% of the population is still doing good. A mass migration to a retirement life styles will start to pick-up. I agree if you're a thrift company that sold mortages in Boulder CO, Raliegh NC, Silicon Valley CA, New York NY your default rate will kill you. If your a home builder in these areas you simply build homes in Florida, Arizona, Maryland, or any other state fairing well instead. What do you care if the people you sold to 10 years ago default to their banks? FWW home builders earnings can be cut in half and they would still be way out ahead of the S&P. In my opinion the confusion between housing market failures in specific locations vs home builders ability to generate capital is holding these stock down. Second, home builders generally do not build the large 40 acre tracs unless the specific market is booming. If it is not, they simply do not spend the money - nearly everything is sub out to contractors. The over head of a dormiant or near dormiant office is next to nothing. Flint

To: orkrious who wrote (156019)	3/17/2002 1:47:13 PM
From: XBrit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

I happen to be visiting relatives in Seattle this week. The economic atmosphere here is similar to that in my home area, Silicon Valley. Boeing is still a huge employment giant in this economy, and when Boeing catches a cold, Seattle gets flu. Unemployment in Santa Clara county, where I live, has gone from 1.2% to 7.5% in 12 months, and Seattle is seeing something similar. Bottom line, do NOT generalize from either of these local economies to the whole country. They are NOT representative.