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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (16945)	3/17/2002 9:17:55 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

<Those are ordinary business cycles. Nothing catastrophic like you guys keep predicting. We've been having an ordinary recession for a while now.> You need to read it again: <It is preceded by a period in which debt climbs quickly in the hope that each new level of indebtedness will finally see the economy "turn around" and service the debt.> We've seen a weak economy and the INCREASING debt [last 2 years]... now we have to see if we've come out of it... although I'll admit, your "staples" anecdote is persuasive :) Let's wait a year and see.... OH, BTW, are you saying the worst is over AND it's time to buy stocks again??? Just trying to pin you down since you have a way of suddenly being 'right' <VBG> DAK

To: Ilaine who wrote (16945)	3/18/2002 12:44:16 PM
From: benwood	Respond to of 74559

Those three & CompUSA have been offering targeted coupons in the last few weeks to unload hardware inventory. That is, a $50, $30, or $20 "gift card" to purchase a printer or scanner, cell phones, and that sort of stuff. They probably figure the people who need pens & paper will have to buy it sooner or later; but somebody thinking of a printer, like me, can wait, and wait, and wait... I've viewed the disappearance of the coupons (online & offline) as a "giving up" on the bubble phenomenon and a growing reality that they have to cut costs and improve margins if possible, or if they MUST give it away, do so in a way that improves their inventory situation. Hardware is depreciating quickly still, and so I can understand why those overproduced lines are being targeted. BTW, I don't think the recession has started yet, and so I can't think we are in recovery -- rather, we've resumed the non-recession would would have been in had 9-11 not occurred. I think the response to 9-11 has effectively delayed the recession (and completely masked all the indicators leading to it), but will hardly prevent it. Bubble may reinflate somewhat before it crumbles, but crumble it will. And I don't think recession is the biggest problem that will surface, either. Nobody even needs to tell me I'm wrong later, either, I'll just save you the trouble and say I'm full of it now, and dead wrong. How could I be more wrong? Virtually everybody in America, all of our elected officials, everybody on CNBC, most in the NY Times and every other publication know I'm wrong, too. My father-in-law thinks I'm a crackpot! Good thing I'm not investing HIS money, he thinks! What an idiot I am!