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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (41485)	3/19/2002 5:42:01 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Bernstein looked at what he calls the "Sell Side Indicator" While I don't want to claim full understanding of Bernstein's indicator and haven't seen a long-term chart of his data, I did keep a similar chart myself and obtained data from 1988 thru 2000. My chart was based on a quarterly WSJ survey of the asset allocation of the 10 largest brokerage firms, with an additional chart for Merrill Lynch. I found a decent, but far from perfect contrarian correlation. It looked OK in the post '87 Crash period as the stock allocation ranged between 44% and 51%. After that it performed reasonably well, peaking at the end of 1991 and again in late '93 in the 64-65% area. It was a bit late in its trough to 52% in early '95. After that its performance deteriorated as it plateaud from mid'98 onward at 62-63%. It failed to drop as we hit the Fall '98 lows and then failed to hit a decisive peak in early 2000. From mid-'98 onwards, the average brokerage firm allocation just hasn't changed that much. In Q3 2000, it had inched up to the 66% area.