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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (2924)	3/19/2002 3:26:25 PM
From: Peter W. Panchyshyn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11633

In reviewing NCF (from their site ) They appear to have inherited some detrimental hedges from the Magin acquisition which severely limits upside (share wise and dividend wise) in a > 3.00 NG world. --------------- I was curious so I looked at their site as well. From their Q3 report I was trying to figure out the percent of hedges in place. And the other contracts it already has in place. Some numbers I found. Their hedges in 2002 are 13.8 mmmf/d in 2002 dropping to 5 mmmf/d in 2003. Their other contracts already in place previous account for some 16 mmmf/d. If my numbers are correct ( I did not spend a great deal of time on it so please verify yourself and post any corrections) that puts their hedges at less than 50% and falling next year. The only question I have is this all of their production?. Is all the production accounted for with this? My guess is probably not. Further to this is something they mention about purchasing derivitive options for prices above $4.91. The question then remains does this severely limit the upside or not? Me thinks that this is not the complete picture in looking to its health. I was looking to their news releases of recent and they made some more acquistions. This at a time of falling prices. I am assuming that under those circumstances they probably did not "overpay" here. And since these trusts don't operate in a vacuum. They are not stuck with overpaying (or whatever) for one set of assets if later on they can pick up something cheaper because of overall conditions (falling prices). On average it all probably works itself out. When prices then again recover afterwards as we are seeing now and in recent past. -------------------