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To: Solon who wrote (3894)	3/21/2002 11:27:57 AM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21057

Is the length of the police record on the abuse predictive of the likelihood of murder, or is it merely an associated statistic? Good question. I think the association is obvious, but there are many people with such long records of abuse that never kill anyone so I would guess the predictive value is relatively weak. I imagine it exists as people with such records are probably several times more likely to kill their partner then people with no such record, however its likely that a majority of abusers never commit murder, so you could not look at an abuser and say that he will eventually be a murderer. Tim