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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (62263)	3/22/2002 5:59:26 PM
From: FR1	Respond to of 70976

Right - I agree completely. They are hoping and guessing. Terrorist or the FED could kill any recovery. AG showing he wants to raise rates soon is not helping. We are still in the critical recovery ward and he is acting like we are fully recovered. Anyhow, AMAT has to make some decision and it seems to be a good guess. I think they are basing it on business they know they have on hand. Also, they they did state that they feel capacity will go from 50% now to 80% by the end of the year.

To: Math Junkie who wrote (62263)	3/22/2002 6:24:59 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

> What the chipmakers are doing is guessing...but nobody really knows. Absolutely true. And this is true not just for the chip makers but for such mundane things as basic metals, banana, coffee, sugar, steel, and so on. When you look at the operations of the companies that are heavy users/producers of a commodity, you see that for the most part they have stopped trying to guess what what the market will do. Rather they try to minimize the effect of market fluctuations on their business. This, I think, is something of significance for all would be market mavens. When the companies that should know the supply and demand better than anyone else and who can actually affect the supply and demand fail to predict the price movements accurately and choose to make their money through other means, others should be so much better to succeed. ST