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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (58614)	3/23/2002 10:48:18 AM
From: John Malloy	Respond to of 77400

Mindmeld, Here is another estimate of Cisco's year-end price. At the end of January Cisco had a book value of $3.77 per share. If growth averages 5 %/yr for the rest of the year, book value per share will be $3.95 by year end. The price/book ratio is now 4.37. That ratio should rise as Cisco's business recovers. If the price/book ratio rises to 5.25, Cisco's price at year end will be $20.73. John Malloy

To: RetiredNow who wrote (58614)	3/23/2002 1:32:08 PM
From: JeffT	Respond to of 77400

mindmeld, thanks for maintaining the list. I thought it would be nice to have a sorted listing. Here it is..... Projections for Cisco stock price at 12-31-02: NYCBoy (#52575) $3.000 Rob V (#58416) $3.520 Bambs (#52577) (#56533) $10.000 John Shannon (#57740) $16.320 Dave (#58612) $18.000 Jacob Snyder (#58368) $20.000 John Malloy (#58615) $20.730 Peter Greenhill (#58611) $22.000 JakeStraw (#58375) $22.250 mindmeld (#56533) $25.000 Nat Nithi (#56547) $25.000 denni rash (#58591) $26.550 Eric (#56558) $27.000 Jorj X. McKie (#56537) $28.000 X-JOE-O (#56554) $28.650 Gottfried (#56539) $29.000 Jeff Tarver (#57739) $29.010 Uncle Frank (#58380) $32.625 Total $386.655 # of Guesses 18.000 Average $21.481 Hope I got everyone's projection right. Correct it if I made a mistake. Jeff

To: RetiredNow who wrote (58614)	3/23/2002 1:59:30 PM
From: JeffT	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

mindmeld, when I added up the numbers on your list I got a different total. I also added John Malloy's in. Maybe I am looking at it wrong. Please verify that my numbers are correct. I setup an Excel spreadsheet to make future additions or corrections easy. Let me know. Thanks. Jeff

To: RetiredNow who wrote (58614)	3/23/2002 4:28:47 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

<deleted cause Jeff beat me to it -gg>

To: RetiredNow who wrote (58614)	3/24/2002 1:15:18 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

There seems to be a tight clustering of guesses in the 25-29 area. As with all Normal distributions, there are a few outliers, out there all alone on the thin edge of the Bell-shaped curve. A long tail on the bearish side, a stubby one on the bullish side. Sign of the times, I guess. Question for NYCB, bambs, Rob V: CSCO bottomed at 11.04 in September 2001. Recall, for a moment, what the prevailing sentiment was then: the pervasive fear, everyone suddenly considering risks they had never given a thought to before, the bulls predicting a recession, the bears predicting a depression, a new war against an inaccessible enemy, anthrax in the mail, etc. What combination of events do you see resulting in a CSCO stock price less than what happened after 9/11? Question for Uncle Frank, Jeff Tarver, Gottfried: What PE and EPS do you see by end-2002 that, multiplied together, gives your expected stock price? Alternately, what P/S and (trailing 12-month) sales figure gets you there?