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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (43452)	3/23/2002 8:34:20 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

see my edit of last post. Now this last chart of yours i like as it really has something i can get a handle on. VIX is reverse measure, the lower it gets in the BB band the worse it is for NASD if it is rising in BB band. This chart of yours finance.yahoo.com^IXIC&k=c3&t=3m&s=^VIX&a=r14&p=b%2Cv&l=on&z=m&q=c really shows an indecisive battle,VIX is getting closer to BB bottom while NASD is rising but without without VIGOR. If VIX hits bottom of BB and starts rising the NASD is coming down. If it were NOT for the first 2 weeks April effect factor i would say NASD is closing in on a severe sell-off,and that is based on your chart. Right now i am torn between a decisive-selloff come mid April in the NASD or a totally WACKO year 2000 type madness that will lead to Zeev's June Massacre( a bloodbath).max

To: Return to Sender who wrote (43452)	3/23/2002 8:42:24 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

RtoS got to thank you for that last chart. here it is over a 2 year period(and one can really see how NASD up/down and VIX have correlated). finance.yahoo.com^VIX&d=c&k=c3&c=^IXIC&a=r14&p=b,v&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=c BTW, your handle has a nice edgy poetic quality. Is it something you wrote and sent or something you received?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (43452)	3/24/2002 8:07:17 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 99280

Looking at the shorter time frame, this past week, the S&P 500 fell 1.52 percent, yet the VIX fell 6.19 percent to 19.56. The VXN lost 7.19 percent this last week, which would seem to say that the Nasdaq rose. Not true as it fell 1% for the week. So the idea that a falling VIX or VXN would cause a rally did not pan out. In fact, Nasdaq has fallen two weeks in a row with a falling VIX and VXN. Action has been quite bearish with respect to these two indicators. As a bear, I love falling VIX and VXN without a rise in prices. It is the perfect storm brewing. And looking at the VIX 10 DMA tells the same story in an intermediate time frame as readings in this are on the average have marked tops the past three years. The fact that the 10 DMA is historically low but the avearges like the SPX and Nasdaq have not made new highs is quite bearish. 10 DMA readings such as these have marked major market tops in the past and I expect in hindsight that they will do the same here: stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b10][vc60]&pref=G And I suspect I will hear that the Vix can fall to the mid teens, and that it can always go lower, or that the Vix doesn't work anymore, or that it is only one indicator, or that absolute number means nothing, or that the VIX trend is down to justify one's bullish market take. Face it. VIX and VXN and QQV are bearish now folks. But you could look to other indicators to justify your bullish sentiment position I suppose. This is not one of them. You will just have to live with it.