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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (2377)	3/24/2002 12:31:43 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95564

Gottfried, The new accounting rules cause billings to lag by the extra months it takes for customer acceptance. Since shipments have been declining each month for a while, the billing decline has been slowed by the lag and the result is that billings reflect shipments a few months ago which were higher than current shipments. So, I agree with RtS BTB is lower. The lag will cause BTB to be higher, longer, once bookings exceed billings. I have stated that "quality" has been given a valuation premium, so I generally agree with RtS' "only game in tech town" idea. I don't think analysts understand how slowly the upturn will be and "next years" earnings estimates could require downward revisions even as the upturn unfolds. I would not be surprised to see a 20-25% pullback when the market starts understanding the need for revisions. I think this will take AMAT from $60 to $45-48, for example.

To: Gottfried who wrote (2377)	3/24/2002 7:11:18 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95564

Interesting comments from Briefing.com: For the past several days, Briefing.com has discussed the fundamental reasons why we expect the tech sector to remain well bid in the weeks and months to come... Many of you disagree with us... Some even label us perma-bulls or market cheerleaders -- which only proves that you weren't reading our pages back in the late-90s, when we were being routinely criticized for being too cautious. With little on the economic or earnings calendar likely to materially alter our fundamental outlook, we now take a brief look at a couple of technical points that support our intermediate- to long-term bullish view. Taking a look at the Nasdaq 100, we note that about 45% of the tech components are currently trading above their long-term (200-day) moving averages... This number is up considerably from where we were just a few months ago, yet still well below the level (over 70%) which would suggest and overbought sector/market... Traditionally, you want to buy a sector/market when less than 20% of the stocks are above their long-term moving average and begin selling when that number climbs over 70% (less conservative number which is often used is 80%). Chart configurations for many stocks trading below their long-term moving averages have improved significantly, as long periods of consolidation have narrowed the divergences between the 100- and 200-day moving averages... This suggests that as long as underlying economic/earnings picture continues to improve, more stocks will be emerging from basing formations and breaking above key moving averages in the weeks and months to come... Some stocks to keep an eye on include: PMC-Sierra (PMCS), ADC Telecom (ADCT), i2 Tech (ITWO), JDS Uniphase (JDSU), Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC), BEA Systems (BEAS), Ericsson (ERICY), Brocade (BRCD), Tellabs (TLAB), Broadcom (BRCM), Veritas (VRTS), Oracle (ORCL) and Vitesse (VTSS). Looking beyond the Nasdaq 100 to the broader Nasdaq Composite, we also note a significant expansion in the number of net new highs (stocks making new 52-wk highs minus those making new 52-wk lows)... This shows a broadening out of the rally, which is an important and encouraging development. These are just a few of the technical factors underpinning the sector. We will explore this area in more detail later on in this holiday shortened week. Robert Walberg