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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (162908)	3/25/2002 5:14:20 PM
From: AK2004	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

bmw re: why would there be market demand for Athlon? why is there demand for celeron? re: amongst all the hype, this kind of a prediction probably means a very slow Hammer ramp, recall that hammer is to be mid to high end and athlon to replace durons, probably. There is ~50/50 split between durona and athlon. re: I would say that makes it at least 60% at this point. so it seems that hammer would ramp up at p4's speed. Seems like whatever is a miracle for intel is below amd's standards - just following your logic -Albert

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (162908)	3/25/2002 5:14:53 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Re: I believe it was the fastest ramp ever - for Intel. They managed to ship 22M units in the first year after launch Note that AMD expects to ship 50% to 100% of that figure the first year after Hammer's launch (2003) - but my recollection is that AMD is a slightly smaller, slightly less resource rich company with a bit less market share than Intel, so it would be more impressive than what Intel did. Oh yeah, and Intel is valued 50 times as high as is AMD - perhaps that's due for a little adjustment.

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (162908)	3/25/2002 5:18:09 PM
From: dale_laroy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

>But now AMD says late 2004 (or 2 years after the expected launch) for Hammer volumes to reach more than half. I'd say that's much slower than Athlon, so why do you suppose such a conservative figure? I'm sure you can spin it any way you want, but amongst all the hype, this kind of a prediction probably means a very slow Hammer ramp, probably due to reasons that AMD doesn't want to share right now.< Actually, AMD does not say that Hammer will not reach 50% of sales until late 2004. AMD says that by late 2004 Hammer will account for more tha 50% of sales, which would be true if Hammer accounted for 90% of sales by late 2003. My guess is that the actual target is for Hammer to account for 80% of sales by mid-2004, which would enable AMD to offload all Athlon/Duron production to UMC. They will probably only make this target if they can begin the transition to 90nm by the end of 2003.

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (162908)	3/25/2002 10:35:49 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Re: I'd say that's much slower than Athlon, so why do you suppose such a conservative figure? I'm sure you can spin it any way you want, but amongst all the hype, this kind of a prediction probably means a very slow Hammer ramp, probably due to reasons that AMD doesn't want to share right now. It's exactly the same as the forecasts for Athlon at the same stage of its deployment. Remember the extensive and detailed roadmaps for K6-III+ on .18? As soon as they were sure Athlon was as fabulous as the samples had indicated, K6-III+ became a notebook only chip, then quickly faded away. It won't be quite the same for the hammers, since AMD won't be going from 6% to 8% of the market to 18% to 24% of the market this time. They'll be going for 30% to 40% of the market by Q3 of next year, and that will require that they maintain a volume of entry level chips. Figure on, for the later quarters of next year, 3-5 million .18 Athlons from UMC each quarter, and 10-12 million hammers from Dresden - each quarter. Certainly, something could go wrong, but I wouldn't take a roadmap identical to Athlon's as a bad sign... That said, I'd sure like to hear some news about Thoroughbred about now.