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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dayuhan who wrote (22289)	3/26/2002 6:09:09 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

You haven't read about these movements because they aren't happening. When they do, they will be reported Since the NY Times has clearly not been covering what has been happening, I don't feel sure about their covering troop movements either.

To: Dayuhan who wrote (22289)	3/26/2002 6:35:14 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Lots of reserves would have to be called out, and we'd hear about it at a local level. I don't know about the actual numbers of armored divisions that would be required, particularly as Saddam's army has probably not recovered in any substantial way from the Gulf War. I suspect that the US would start with a heavy bombardment lasting a long time before actually engaging in a land war. Whatever conventional assets Saddam salvaged or replaced as a result of his Gulf War losses would be heavily punished by air, making the land war a lot less demanding from an assets standpoint. Saddam would clearly use WMDs against US land troops and/or Israel once the noose tightened around him. How effective they would be is unknown and unknowable until they are actually used. God help us if he has nukes. I think we can safely assume that he has dirty bombs which would wreak havoc on oilfields and in Israel. Also injure a lot of our boys.

To: Dayuhan who wrote (22289)	3/27/2002 1:28:10 PM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 281500

You haven't read about these movements because they aren't happening. When they do, they will be reported. agreed on both points. and quite frankly, there might well be some credible inside gossip as a leading indicator as well. Although there's a loud drumbeat of media speculation, however, to my knowledge there still has not been any authoritative decision inside the administration about whether, when, and how to attack Iraq. (Please, no comments about how the "whether" is no longer in question, because without specifics on the "when" and "how," all the "whether" talk is just verbiage.) A while ago, I gave one guy 5-1 odds that there would be no attack before the end of April, and am confident it's taking candy from a baby--and would be even if the deadline were some months later. (For the time being, on this issue selling calls is a better strategy than buying them.) That said, this area bears serious watching, obviously, and things could change. tb@canusethemoney.com