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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ali Chen who wrote (75694)	3/27/2002 9:58:58 AM
From: combjelly	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

"AMD does improve processors. So does Intel." First, unless things have changed, AMD can manufacture fairly large die economically, the original K5 was 251mm^2 and the original K7 was 187mm^2. What AMD hasn't done is made a L2 cache larger than 256k. Can they? Now that's a question... Pretty much a given that the two companies improve their processors. But, unless there is a huge surprise somewhere, we know what the next few years will be like. Next year will have at least two flavors of the Hammers, and Prescott. I suspect that Prescott will have more resources to support Hyperthreading better, a very fast FSB and 1 Meg of L2. By the time it is out, the Hammers will either have started a transition to 90nm, or will be getting ready to. I expect AMD to do two things at 90nm, add DDRII capability and increase the caches. However, even without an increase in cache, a straight ClawHammer shrink to 65mm^2 with a 512k L2 cache and DDRII should be a potent competitor to Prescott unless ClawHammer's clock rate cannot exceed 3.5GHz at 90nm. Since SledgeHammer with it's 1 Meg. of L2 will be in the 150mm^2 range at 130nm, it should be in the 100mm^2 range at 90nm, assuming it scales down by the same factor as ClawHammer is supposed to. So AMD has to decide whether to go for a 100mm^2 die, add more cache, add a second processor core, or all three and have a new level of performance. I suspect they will go with the latter and have the desktop ClawHammers fabbed out, keeping the Sledge variants at Dresden. But that's my guess. Ok, that accounts for up to 2004 and early 2005. 2005 should be the transition to 65nm for both companies and AMD's transition to 300mm. If AMD still has capacity problems after that, well, that should be very good for AMD unless 450mm^2 chips are needed...

To: Ali Chen who wrote (75694)	3/27/2002 10:32:19 AM
From: Yousef	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Ali, Re: "This gives Intel tremendous advantages with regard to pricing, with heavy negative implications for AMD's ASP, and for many years to come (as you seem to agree about 2005 transition to 300mm), unless the Hammer platform is a true miracle." Ali, You're starting to get the "process thingy". Now, doesn't it also "bother" you that AMD will only get to 300mm by a "partnership" with UMC ??!! Hasn't AMD done "process partnerships" before (think Motorolo). How have these worked out ??!! Does this mean the next AMD CEO will be from UMC ??!! <ggg> Make It So, Yousef

To: Ali Chen who wrote (75694)	3/29/2002 7:48:22 PM
From: AK2004	Respond to of 275872

Ali re: bigger capacity It does give intel an advantage but, there is also a "but", it is not clear at all that there is a cost advantage there though. 1) capacity is expensive and cost needs to be written off with every chip. 2) Intel did not invest it's own money and as such responsible to shareholders. Shareholders would require return on investment as in 1) and that would put a pricing pressure on intel 3) fab capacity is far riskier than cash and, hence, risk premium is through the roof 4) intel is betting heavily on the designs which means a) they need to hedge the risks and that should be expensive b) ignore the risk and risk premium through the roof again 5) amd on another hand picking up capacity from hurting companies and trying to limit their expenses on tools which would lead to lower cost per chip. Intel lucked out with new depreciation of goodwill which would add up a bil or so to papermoney gains. Regards -Albert