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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Psycho-Social who wrote (44977)	3/29/2002 8:25:42 AM
From: Murray Grummitt	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

Re Seasonality: The VTO report of the April 3rd & 4th phenomenon is based on how many occurrences? The Stock Traders Almanac, which bases their Nasdaq probability on 28 years of observation, have a 65.5% probability on the 3rd (moderately high) a 51.7% on the 4th (neutral) of the Nasdaq rising. Therefore I conclude that the probability of a seasonally weak April 3rd and 4th, when losses ave 0.5% each day is relatively low. With all due respect to Zeev (he called Thursday's turn and Friday's rally well) based on the following chart I have difficulty seeing how the Nasdaq can rally from here for more than a few days at most. Now if we sell off April 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th that might be another matter! (BG) stockcharts.com[w,a]daclynay[pc13!c20!f][iUm12!Ll14]&pref=G