Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Madarasz who wrote (82941)	3/29/2002 10:27:05 AM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

meaning what to you?

To: John Madarasz who wrote (82941)	3/29/2002 6:49:44 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Interesting that those BP charts for the SPX and COMP show rising wedges breaking the past couple of months. Even the adjusted support on the SPX shows it breaking this month. The $BPNYA is still in an uptrend, but that's almost entirely due to a flatter rising support. The high levels are something I've been watching closely. Right now on the $BPNDX, the 20-day EMA has been breached, which usually means lower prices will follow. stockcharts.com[h,a]dallnnay[de][pc20]&pref=G However, the drop has not been confirmed by the BPCOMPQ, which does not whipsaw as much as the NDX: stockcharts.com[h,a]dallnnay[de][pc20]&pref=G I think the best we can hope for near term is a double top. This is playing out quite a bit like one scenario I was looking at in late January. At that time the 20-day SMA crossed the 50-day SMA from above. From the last 2-years, when this happened, the top was in and there was an 80% chance of a re-test of the recent lows within 1-3 months. The other 20% chance was a 50% re-trace within 1-3 months followed by a double top (a-la summer 2000). It appears we could be getting the latter. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclnnay[df][pb50!b20]&pref=G Notice also the 20-day SMA has crossed back above the 50-day SMA, which is a buy signal.