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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Condor who wrote (22674)	3/30/2002 3:12:21 PM
From: axial	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 281500

"How long before Israel touches Syria?" Better: How long can the unstable dynamics of the Arab-Israeli situation be maintained at status quo? The ostensible players and agendas in the Middle East have undergone a transfomation in recent years, attributable largely to a pan-Arabic consensus promoted multilaterally by transnational players. Disregarding the whole regrettable series of events leading to this point, and disregarding the question of "truth" (which has been lost in the opposing constituencies) the question now becomes whether it is possible (or even desirable) for Israel to continue in its existence in the present, accelerating dynamic. Surrounded though Arafat may be, it is Israel that is surrounded. The actions of well-funded Arabic extremists are either supported, tacitly supported, or unstoppable in the majority of states surrounding Israel. There is no conceivable series of military actions (including nuclear strikes) that will terminate this externally funded and externally driven hostility towards Israel. The only hope for the citizens of Israel lies in a political settlement; notwithstanding its failings, the recent Saudi proposal at least offers a starting point. Its strength lies in the fact that it comes from a major funding source for Arab extremism, while simultaneously offering a more "moderate" view. The end point, of course, is the guarantee of Israel's existence, perhaps with enforceable terms. Is there any guarantee that such an agreement is attainable? No. But the alternative, maintenance of Israel's security by military means, on a protracted basis, has become unachievable. The only possible solution has become a political one. While the potential (or even likely) failure of such an agreement is the supposed reason for Israeli rejection of the proposal - the failure of such an agreement would merely return the players to the present state of affairs. Depending on one's point of view, it is, or is not unfortunate that current events occur within the context of the United States' desire to prosecute a wider agenda. It certainly complicates perceptions, though again, perhaps not to the politicized, transnational constituencies. One can distill the various layers of action and reaction into separate constituents, but the fact remains that when the United States has made its moves, Israel will remain to bear the consequences of (probably heightened) pan-Arabic hostility. In the global context, the failure of the United States and Israel to arrive at a political solution will only serve to exacerbate the situation. On a global scale, propaganda and misinformation polarize opinion. The only possible incremental solution is to defuse the mounting polarization by engaging the national players in a political solution: reasserting the importance of national players, promoting the implementation of reasoned and negotiated settlements, and marginalizing pan-Arabic players. The alternative is predictable.