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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (49201)	4/1/2002 6:07:37 AM
From: Clappy	Respond to of 65232

Ol'SilverBack, As usual, you put a lot more thought into my post than I did. I figured if I posted the COT stuff enough, eventually you would help give me an idea how to interpret it. Your questions actually got me to look up who the heck the Commercial traders were and you appear to be correct. cftc.gov So they do appear to be hedging their bets rather than betting against gold and silver. For the most part it appears they might be taking added insurance against their large positions of physical metal. I see you are certainly doing your homework and not just hyping something that has caught your eye. The more I poke and prod you, the more I learn. Not bad for a Silver Back Gorilla. Your breed is smarter than they appear. <g> The woman form the Gorrilas In The Myst movie would have been proud. You accelled right through sign language and have mastered typing (except for not knowing what Capital Letters are for and where the "period" key might be)... <g> I asked the zoo keeper to give you a few extra mangos and bananas for your superb work. Just try to remember to stop putting your finger into your butt every time you get a little curious... <vbg> -MonkeyBoy

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (49201)	4/1/2002 6:49:54 AM
From: Clappy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

SilveryKnuckleDragger, I had always looked at the COT commercials as the smart money even though data doesn't support that except perhaps at major market turns. They seemed to right about gold back in Dec. 2000 seeing them being longer than short if my memory serves me right. Now I see them leaning quite a bit in the opposite direction. I guess they can afford to wrong for a long long time... Seeing now that these are mostly hedged bets, it makes a little more sense. If I knew a thing or two about spread sheets I would be able to tool around with their historical data and plot it against a chart of physical silver or gold to see how good their contrarian positions work. Perhaps there is a website somewhere that already does this... <Edit> <Clappy goes off and scours the internet for a few minutes...> Here is what I found... sharelynx.net Click on PM's (Precious Metals) Then pick one to see it's longer term chart... The Red is the net Commercial postions. Blue are the Non Commercials... Top graph is the price of physical. Open Interest chart is at bottom in black. As you can see the Commercial/Non Commercials are almost inverse reflections of each other. I also see that the Commercials spike down hard near the temporary tops. (See long term gold/silver chart, too.) This is basically what I was trying to point out with my nonsensicle COT posts... -SilverClappers